Carnegie Moscow Center
The Russian-Ukrainian economic agreements look like Putin’s victory, but the Kremlin will have to deal with an array of powerful opponents. The battle for Ukraine has entered a new stage.
Not only in Russia where ideologists use the issue of homosexual rights as a dividing line between the East and the West, but in some other post-communist states as well the European agenda on gay and lesbian rights is not shared by the majority of population.
Viktor Yanukovych is not ready to step back from the struggle for monopolistic power. His game with the West has only one purpose for him—to trade less humiliating conditions for surrender to the Kremlin.
Integrating Ukraine would have been a terrible deal for Russia. On the other hand, if the EU were to help Ukraine become more modern, Russia would be a net beneficiary.
If Europe decides to venture into Ukraine, then it should seriously invest in Ukraine, economically, financially, and politically. As for Russia, it would be better off to continue its policy of non-interference that it is officially maintaining now.
Ukraine has no choice but to make a deal with the EU, but the Europeans will need a long-term strategy to manage relations with Kiev.
Protests in Istanbul and Kiev have similar root causes and similar effects. The demonstrations have shown that citizens can and do take charge in their demand for freedom.
The choice between Russia and the West should be Ukraine’s, and Russia should respect that choice and structure its relations with its neighbor accordingly.
Nation-building in Ukraine is a formidable task, its divided nation also a hurdle to a democratic development. Still, Ukraine seems to have a better chance of evolving as a democracy than Russia.
The time is now for Poland to support a peaceful dialogue between the Ukrainian opposition and President Yanukovych. It is also time for Warsaw to make the EU more aware that stability and peaceful transition in Ukraine is of crucial importance for the whole European security.