Carnegie Moscow Center
In case of unobstructed civil war in Syria, the division between Russian and U.S. policies toward Syria will most probably deepen, and the choices of these two countries will have serious international implications, including stronger Russia-China cooperation to counter U.S. foreign policies.
A flexible relationship, rather than an alliance, may better suit Russia and China despite their many shared interests.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohamed Morsi, is likely to win the second round of Egypt’s presidential election, with important ramification not only for Egypt but also for the region as a whole.
The situation in Syria has two potential outcomes. There will either be a military victory by the opposition or President Bashar al-Assad will step down. In any case, Assad has lost.
Each of the three previous four-year presidential terms in Russia—two of Vladimir Putin and one Dmitry Medvedev’s—has been marked by a different policy toward the West, and the new Putin’s six-year period opening in 2012 is likely to follow that pattern.
The result of the first round of Egypt’s presidential election seems poised to be the prelude to a direct confrontation between the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Islamists’ defeat in Algeria’s recent parliamentary elections is a product of the pragmatism of the ruling Algerian elite and shows that the regime is sensitive to society’s demands. The results are likely an exception to the trend of rising Islamist influence in the Arab world.
While developing its Asian strategy, Russia will certainly give a lot of attention to cooperation with China, but it will not ignore its interests and opportunities in other countries in the region.
UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan is most likely looking to persuade Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to leave power and prevent a collapse of the Syrian state and civil war.
Russia’s intransigence in the face of intense international pressure to halt the violence in Syria is confusing to much of the world, but there are real Russian financial and strategic interests at stake over Syria.