Carnegie Moscow Center
Syria has entered a “hurting stalemate” that may last months rather than years. The regime is unable to suppress the revolt, but the opposition seems equally unable to demonstrate effective operational control over an increasingly messy situation on the ground.
China’s impact on the U.S. economy and its rising global power gives China a significant role in the Republican primaries for the 2012 U.S. presidential elections.
While the project of “grand Eurasian alliance” between Russia and China currently appears unworkable, the Sino-Russian strategic partnership is a major boon for both countries and acts as one of the pillars of peace and stability in Asia.
Recent violence in Zhanaozen in December has forced Kazakhstan's authorities to rethink political, economic, and social policies. Only time will tell if the changes will have their desired effect, but it is the country's population that will make the ultimate judgment.
Uzbekistan, like other Central Asian states, shifts its foreign policy efforts between Moscow and Washington depending on circumstances. It seems that now Uzbekistan is pressing for an increased American military presence in the country.
The Arab League's observer missions in Syria are unlikely to succeed, but they will continue for the rest of the year as external military intervention is highly unlikely
The ruling class emerged victorious from the recent parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan. But the overconfidence of Kazakh leaders means that all economic, social, and political issues, including the question of power transition, remain unresolved. The leadership may soon face a political storm.
The cumulative impact of the nuclear developments that occurred in 2012, from the disaster in Fukushima to Iran's continuing nuclear program, will make the world's nuclear future more uncertain.
French President Sarkozy’s request for Chinese money in support of the euro rescue symbolized three historic shifts in great power relations: the fragility and endangerment of the European project, the ascendance of China, and the beginning of the end of the American era.
After a year that included the Arab Awakening, the euro crisis, Japan’s nuclear catastrophe, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the unanticipated reaction to Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, there are many unanswered questions left for 2012.