Carnegie Moscow Center
The Kremlin now sees the U.S. goal as the toppling of the Putin regime. That said, expecting Putin to back off betrays a lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation. It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.
The MH17 crisis within the larger Ukraine crisis is likely to lead to the politicization of the conflict.
The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.
If the investigators’ verdict on the Malaysia Airlines plane crash does eventually fall against Russia, Vladimir Putin will survive politically, but will have to work hard to restore faith in him, and his good fortune.
The Ukraine crisis is testing the complex relationship between Europe, America, and Russia. Yet the gap between the United States and its European allies, as far as policies toward Russia are concerned, is wide and deep.
Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.
Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.
If Russia wants to stay in the game of global competition, it has no choice but to work toward becoming a civic nation, a rules-based polity, and a modern economy.
Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.
The initiatives outlined by Putin in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum may lay the groundwork for radical changes in economic policy.