Carnegie Moscow Center
Jihadists in the North Caucasus, spurred by widespread poverty, mass unemployment, and rampant corruption, are likely behind the recent suicide bombing at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport.
As Russia’s 2012 presidential elections draw near, the tandem government between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin faces increasing strain.
Russia’s GDP is expected to grow at low rates the next two years and the country's budgetary outlook remains uncertain, while recent riots and violence suggest that the country’s political situation is deteriorating.
President Dmitry Medvedev’s annual state-of-the-nation address lacked any analysis of the real challenges facing the country and was not the address of the leader of a country but rather a report by a deputy prime minister responsible for the government’s priority national projects.
While political modernization remains unrealized under President Medvedev, as the Russian situation becomes increasingly complex, the Kremlin will likely be forced to embrace modernization as the only path to political survival.
President Medvedev used his visit to the contested Kuril Islands to pursue his domestic political objectives, at the cost of undermining Russia’s strategic goal to turn Japan into a key partner in the East.
Current economic, social and political conditions are more likely to push Russian voters toward opposition candidates than United Russia’s candidates, with potentially significant ramifications for the ruling party.