Carnegie Moscow Center
The crisis in Crimea is the most dangerous moment since the end of the Cold War, with the risk of not only an escalation of tension between Ukraine and Russia, but also between Russia and NATO.
The situation in Ukraine is very unstable and dangerous, and Moscow's support of the delayed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and non-recognition of the new authorities in Kyiv only adds to the tension.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.
The defeat of the Ukrainian regime was a severe blow to Vladimir Putin personally. Any victory of Ukrainian revolution could act as an inspiration for the Russian people as well.
The protests in Ukraine are a warning to all post-Soviet authoritarian states that the same thing may occur at any time in their countries and are likely to serve as a pretext for the authorities in Russia and in Central Asia to tighten their control.
Putin’s Eurasian Union would be a set of political and economic structures, similar to the EU, that Russia would dominate. But this vision comes with a price; Ukraine’s economy is in trouble, just as Russia is suffering from low economic growth.
The influx of labor migrants is an economic necessity for Russia, which does not have enough native workforce. But the newness of this migration, coupled with a social distrust of authority, is causing problems.
The main reason that Russia’s anti-gay laws have stirred up such strong emotions is the lack of open social discussion about the issue.
Russia’s position on Syria is based in large part on Moscow’s concerns about the political repercussions of intervention. At the G20 Summit, Vladimir Putin attempted to create a de facto referendum on intervention.
Although Putin’s statements have been seen as flexible rhetoric, Russia’s policy toward Syria has not changed.