Carnegie Moscow Center
Vladimir Putin faces the question of whether to crack down on the still-evolving protest movement or to make concessions to a group who may never trust him.
While fraud was less prevalent in the March 4 Russian presidential election, abuses still occurred.
Russian protesters hail from a new generation who are tired of Vladimir Putin’s regime. Given Putin’s refusal to give up power and the impending presidential elections, further unrest is likely.
Fed up with a closed political system dominated by one man, Russia’s privileged class has taken to the streets to protest against Putin’s regime.
The recent parliamentary elections in Russia offer evidence of the corruption afflicting the country’s political system, as officials manipulated the system to guarantee that the ruling United Russia party would remain in power.
While Putin may have a guaranteed victory in the upcoming presidential election, it is increasingly clear that Russia’s once-passive electorate is willing to show its discontent, making it potentially more difficult to promote necessary economic reforms.
The recent parliamentary elections saw the ruling United Russia party fare worse than expected, as Russian citizens expressed their frustration with perceived lawlessness and corruption in the country’s political system.
If Putin is re-elected president, he is likely to seek to maintain continuity and stability in a time of economic uncertainty and his return will not significantly alter Russian domestic politics or the U.S.-Russia reset.
If Russian Prime Minister Putin is elected Russia’s next president, it will likely not have a significant impact on the success of the reset in U.S.-Russian bilateral relations.
Given that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has probably been involved in the U.S.-Russian reset in bilateral relations, a high degree of continuity in Russian policy toward the United States is likely when he becomes president.