Carnegie Moscow Center
While the U.S. policy on Afghanistan has been accused of inconsistency, recent events suggest a comprehensive policy is taking shape, one that takes into account transformations in the threats the country faces.
The terrorist attack in Pune shows there is still opposition in India to normalizing relations with Pakistan. Since the international community supports normalization, however, this opposition stands little chance of success.
As the war in Afghanistan begins to enter a new phase, it is important to reexamine some of the premises of U.S. policy in the Central Asian region and to consider whether the conditions in the region have changed in the last decade.
Clearly it is in Russia's interest, while maintaining its strong positions in India, to search for a way to move beyond the traditional spheres of cooperation, in order not only to maintain the strategic nature of their bilateral relations in the long run, but, using these relations, to enhance the innovative character of its own economy.
While the U.S.-led NATO operations in Afghanistan have resulted in somewhat enhanced security capacity for Central Asian countries, their long-term security challenges seem to be increasing, given the current situation in Afghanistan and the growing instability of Pakistan.
Russia retains interests throughout the post-Soviet regions, but Moscow’s considerable influence is no longer dominant.
The economic crisis has had a clear impact on the already impoverished countries of Central Asia, but few Americans and Europeans have noticed. China and Russia have stepped in to provide aid, and their investments threaten institutional reform in the region.