20 Years of Leading Analysis

War and Peace in the Caucasus

 

The emergence of the new states of the Caucasus has been strained by territorial disputes. Conflicts smolder in Chechnya, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Terrorism and extremism have spread into the region from neighboring Middle East and Central Asia. Islam has emerged as a factor of public life. Caspian oil and its transit routes to the West have become the object of rivalry between major powers. How these challenges are met will determine the security outlook for Russia, Europe, and, in part, the United States.

  • Eurasia Outlook
    Regime Change Divides East and West
    Thomas de Waal December 17, 2014

    In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    The Grozny Attack—What’s Next?
    Alexey Malashenko December 11, 2014 Русский

    The terrorist attack that shook Grozny during the night of December 4 has put in question the authorities’ ability to control the situation in the North Caucasus, even in the seemingly stable Chechen Republic.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    The Grozny Attacks and Russia’s Relationship with the West
    Maxim Suchkov December 5, 2014

    One of the most important consequences of the dramatic violence in Grozny may be the impact it has on Russia-Western relations. Amidst a stand-off with the West over Ukraine, the Kremlin may interpret this terrorist acts as “Western attempts to fuel instability inside Russia.”

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Winners and Losers in the Black Sea Gas Game
    Thomas de Waal December 3, 2014

    Calling time on the South Stream pipeline project, Putin announced a new Black Sea pipeline to Turkey instead. The new project could be a competitor to Azerbaijan gas ambitions, but, at the same time, it may require more collaboration in the future.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    What Do You Expect From Vladimir Putin’s Visit to Turkey?
    Ümit Pamir, Dmitri Trenin, Memduh Karakullukçu, Pavel Shlykov, Adnan Vatansever December 1, 2014

    In view of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey, Eurasia Outlook asked a few of the authors of the recent paper on Russian-Turkish cooperation what to expect from this visit.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Abkhazia: Deeper With Russia
    Thomas de Waal November 20, 2014

    With Russia—for better or worse. That is the message society in Abkhazia is receiving now that a new Abkhaz-Russian treaty has been drafted which could be signed as early as next week.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Nagorno-Karabakh: Helicopter Downing Threatens Shaky Truce
    Thomas de Waal November 13, 2014 BBC Русский

    The shooting down of an Armenian helicopter on the ceasefire line of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is the worst incident of its kind in over 20 years.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Limits of Partnership: Russia and Turkey in the Caucasus
    Maxim Suchkov November 12, 2014

    In recent years the nature of Russian-Turkish relationship has proved to be nuanced. For Moscow and Ankara it is important to separate cooperative wheat from antagonizing chaff.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Georgia’s Coalition on the Rocks?
    Thomas de Waal November 5, 2014

    The unity of the Georgian Dream coalition has ended and the next election has already begun, only two years after the previous one. A break-up of this big coalition was inevitable; the only surprise is that it has happened so soon.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Echoes of the Ukraine Crisis in the South Caucasus
    Maxim Suchkov October 24, 2014

    The Ukrainian crisis has shown to the South Caucasian states that deciding between European and Eurasian integration comes at a high price, but that indecisiveness is an even worse path.

     

Carnegie Experts on War and Peace in the Caucasus

  • Alexey Malashenko
    Scholar in Residence
    Religion, Society, and Security Program
    Moscow Center

    Malashenko is the chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program. He also taught at the Higher School of Economics from 2007 to 2008 and was a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations from 2000 to 2006.

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  • Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center

    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

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