20 Years of Leading Analysis

War and Peace in the Caucasus

 

The emergence of the new states of the Caucasus has been strained by territorial disputes. Conflicts smolder in Chechnya, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Terrorism and extremism have spread into the region from neighboring Middle East and Central Asia. Islam has emerged as a factor of public life. Caspian oil and its transit routes to the West have become the object of rivalry between major powers. How these challenges are met will determine the security outlook for Russia, Europe, and, in part, the United States.

  • Eurasia Outlook
    Economic Turmoil in the Caucasus
    Thomas de Waal February 27, 2015

    Devaluing its currency, Azerbaijan follows its neighbors into a time of economic struggle.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    The Karabakh Truce Under Threat
    Thomas de Waal February 12, 2015

    A worsening pattern of violence on the Karabakh ceasefire line increases the danger of a war by miscalculation in 2015.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Sources of Israel’s Policy in the Caucasus
    Maxim Suchkov February 5, 2015

    Israel’s interests in the Caucasus have three principal dimensions: strategically, as a means of encircling Iran; in the mid-term, as a zone of energy supplies; and in a short-term, as a market for selling high tech arms and ammunition.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Prospects for Turkey’s New “Armenia Opening” and Russia’s Concerns
    Pavel Shlykov January 29, 2015

    Recently the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has drawn the attention of both Turkish and world media. However, current activities around the “Armenian question” failed to create solid ground for real compromise between the two states.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Armenia: Aftermath of a Massacre
    Thomas de Waal January 28, 2015

    The political fallout of the horrible murders in Gyumri will not result in a strategic re-orientation by Armenia away from Russia. However, it will undermine public support for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his government.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Ramzan Kadyrov as a Federal-Level Politician

    Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus, is now firmly entrenched in Russian politics at the federal-level, and it appears that he is there to stay, because Putin and Kadyrov really need each other.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Swallowing South Ossetia
    Thomas de Waal January 14, 2015

    Russia and South Ossetia are about to sign a “Treaty of Alliance and Integration.” However, normalization of relations with Georgia is impossible as long as Moscow continues to strengthen its grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Looking Back on 2014 (Part II)
    Balázs Jarábik, Maxim Suchkov, Thomas de Waal, Alexander Gabuev, Petr Topychkanov, Vinay Shukla, Arkady Dubnov, Nikolay Kozhanov December 31, 2014

    2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Regime Change Divides East and West
    Thomas de Waal December 17, 2014

    In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    The Grozny Attack—What’s Next?
    Alexey Malashenko December 11, 2014 Русский

    The terrorist attack that shook Grozny during the night of December 4 has put in question the authorities’ ability to control the situation in the North Caucasus, even in the seemingly stable Chechen Republic.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Economic Turmoil in the Caucasus
    Thomas de Waal February 27, 2015

    Devaluing its currency, Azerbaijan follows its neighbors into a time of economic struggle.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    The Karabakh Truce Under Threat
    Thomas de Waal February 12, 2015

    A worsening pattern of violence on the Karabakh ceasefire line increases the danger of a war by miscalculation in 2015.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Sources of Israel’s Policy in the Caucasus
    Maxim Suchkov February 5, 2015

    Israel’s interests in the Caucasus have three principal dimensions: strategically, as a means of encircling Iran; in the mid-term, as a zone of energy supplies; and in a short-term, as a market for selling high tech arms and ammunition.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Prospects for Turkey’s New “Armenia Opening” and Russia’s Concerns
    Pavel Shlykov January 29, 2015

    Recently the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has drawn the attention of both Turkish and world media. However, current activities around the “Armenian question” failed to create solid ground for real compromise between the two states.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Armenia: Aftermath of a Massacre
    Thomas de Waal January 28, 2015

    The political fallout of the horrible murders in Gyumri will not result in a strategic re-orientation by Armenia away from Russia. However, it will undermine public support for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his government.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Ramzan Kadyrov as a Federal-Level Politician

    Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus, is now firmly entrenched in Russian politics at the federal-level, and it appears that he is there to stay, because Putin and Kadyrov really need each other.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Swallowing South Ossetia
    Thomas de Waal January 14, 2015

    Russia and South Ossetia are about to sign a “Treaty of Alliance and Integration.” However, normalization of relations with Georgia is impossible as long as Moscow continues to strengthen its grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Looking Back on 2014 (Part II)
    Balázs Jarábik, Maxim Suchkov, Thomas de Waal, Alexander Gabuev, Petr Topychkanov, Vinay Shukla, Arkady Dubnov, Nikolay Kozhanov December 31, 2014

    2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.

     
  • Op-Ed
    The Great Clash Explained: What Drives Dangerous Tensions Between the West and Russia
    Dmitri Trenin December 30, 2014 National Interest Русский

    For over two decades, no one in the West felt the need for regulating Russia’s relations with NATO. The lesson of the Napoleonic wars about the need to integrate a former adversary—which was forgotten after WWI—has been forgotten again.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Regime Change Divides East and West
    Thomas de Waal December 17, 2014

    In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.

     

Carnegie Experts on War and Peace in the Caucasus

  • Alexander Baunov
    Senior Associate
    Editor in Chief of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center

    Baunov is a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Center and editor in chief of Carnegie.ru.

  •  
  • Alexey Malashenko
    Scholar in Residence
    Religion, Society, and Security Program
    Moscow Center

    Malashenko is the chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program. He also taught at the Higher School of Economics from 2007 to 2008 and was a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations from 2000 to 2006.

  •  
  • Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center

    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

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