20 Years of Leading Analysis

War and Peace in the Caucasus

 

The emergence of the new states of the Caucasus has been strained by territorial disputes. Conflicts smolder in Chechnya, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Terrorism and extremism have spread into the region from neighboring Middle East and Central Asia. Islam has emerged as a factor of public life. Caspian oil and its transit routes to the West have become the object of rivalry between major powers. How these challenges are met will determine the security outlook for Russia, Europe, and, in part, the United States.

  • Eurasia Outlook
    In Memoriam: Eduard Shevardnadze, the Father of Modern Georgia
    Tedo Japaridze July 9, 2014

    Although many today may doubt the effectiveness of his policies, because of Eduard Shevardnadze Georgia has a set of options today, being in a position that in no way resembles the reality a generation ago.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Georgia: In a Roadmap, the Most Important Thing Is the Destination
    Tedo Japaridze July 3, 2014

    In recent years Georgia has taken every possible step to ensure that its western trajectory does not threaten to Russia. Georgia is seeking a constructive role, consistent with its values and in tune with its geography.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    For Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia Free Trade with Europe and Russia Is Possible
    Sergei Aleksashenko July 3, 2014

    There are few if any reasons for Russia to worry about an immediate negative impact on trade and economic interests of signing of the AA/DCFTA by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. The Russian government’s position is more likely to reflect concerns about the loss of geopolitical influence rather than trade and economic relations.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Caucasus Emir Seeks a Re-Brand
    Thomas de Waal July 2, 2014

    The roots of the insurgency in the North Caucasus remain: local muslims, especially in Dagestan, still experience rule by Moscow as brutal and corrupt and feel they have no stake in Russian society. These roots are only likely to get deeper as Russia becomes more autocratic.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Shia-Sunni Sectarianism in the Middle East and Its Echo in Azerbaijan
    Kenan Rovshenoglu, Bayram Balci June 27, 2014

    With the conflict reaching Iraq, which reflects to the same religious divisions as in Azerbaijan, the risk is greater that Azerbaijanis Shia and Sunnites will be affected by the sectarianism of the Middle East.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Sticks and Carrots in Georgia
    Thomas de Waal June 26, 2014

    An exertion of soft power by stealth is Russia's best chance of re-establishing influence in Georgia. And its only chance of success is if the new economic relationship between the EU and Georgia fails to deliver results.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Georgian Dream’s Day of Disappointment
    Thomas de Waal June 18, 2014

    Local elections in Georgia demonstrated that less than two years after taking office the Georgian Dream has shed a large section of its support.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    An Azerbaijan-American Puzzle
    Thomas de Waal June 11, 2014

    Azerbaijan has picked a fight with the U.S. government. The simplest explanation for this may be that President Aliyev is as paranoid and isolated as their actions suggest. If United States want to maintain influence in Azerbaijan it should find messengers who can get through some thick palace walls.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Abkhazia’s Extreme Democracy
    Thomas de Waal June 4, 2014

    On June 1 Abkhaz President Alexander Ankvab was forced to resign. The next Abkhaz leader will rule a state that most of the world does not regard as legitimate. He will also struggle to win the same legitimacy at home as his predecessors enjoyed.

     
  • Paper
    The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry
    Dmitri Trenin July 9, 2014

    Russia has stepped forward in Ukraine to protect its vital interests—which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    In Memoriam: Eduard Shevardnadze, the Father of Modern Georgia
    Tedo Japaridze July 9, 2014

    Although many today may doubt the effectiveness of his policies, because of Eduard Shevardnadze Georgia has a set of options today, being in a position that in no way resembles the reality a generation ago.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Georgia: In a Roadmap, the Most Important Thing Is the Destination
    Tedo Japaridze July 3, 2014

    In recent years Georgia has taken every possible step to ensure that its western trajectory does not threaten to Russia. Georgia is seeking a constructive role, consistent with its values and in tune with its geography.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    For Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia Free Trade with Europe and Russia Is Possible
    Sergei Aleksashenko July 3, 2014

    There are few if any reasons for Russia to worry about an immediate negative impact on trade and economic interests of signing of the AA/DCFTA by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. The Russian government’s position is more likely to reflect concerns about the loss of geopolitical influence rather than trade and economic relations.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Caucasus Emir Seeks a Re-Brand
    Thomas de Waal July 2, 2014

    The roots of the insurgency in the North Caucasus remain: local muslims, especially in Dagestan, still experience rule by Moscow as brutal and corrupt and feel they have no stake in Russian society. These roots are only likely to get deeper as Russia becomes more autocratic.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Shia-Sunni Sectarianism in the Middle East and Its Echo in Azerbaijan
    Kenan Rovshenoglu, Bayram Balci June 27, 2014

    With the conflict reaching Iraq, which reflects to the same religious divisions as in Azerbaijan, the risk is greater that Azerbaijanis Shia and Sunnites will be affected by the sectarianism of the Middle East.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Sticks and Carrots in Georgia
    Thomas de Waal June 26, 2014

    An exertion of soft power by stealth is Russia's best chance of re-establishing influence in Georgia. And its only chance of success is if the new economic relationship between the EU and Georgia fails to deliver results.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Georgian Dream’s Day of Disappointment
    Thomas de Waal June 18, 2014

    Local elections in Georgia demonstrated that less than two years after taking office the Georgian Dream has shed a large section of its support.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    An Azerbaijan-American Puzzle
    Thomas de Waal June 11, 2014

    Azerbaijan has picked a fight with the U.S. government. The simplest explanation for this may be that President Aliyev is as paranoid and isolated as their actions suggest. If United States want to maintain influence in Azerbaijan it should find messengers who can get through some thick palace walls.

     

Carnegie Experts on War and Peace in the Caucasus

  • Alexey Malashenko
    Scholar in Residence
    Religion, Society, and Security Program
    Moscow Center

    Malashenko is the co-chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program. He also taught at the Higher School of Economics from 2007 to 2008 and was a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations from 2000 to 2006.

  •  
  • Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center

    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

  •  

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