20 Years of Leading Analysis

Putin's Return

 

Vladimir Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he has a different country to rule. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia will be unable to launch serious social and economic development unless its political system becomes more open and responsive. Russian society has been on the move, with more affluent consumers turning into citizens and the socio-economic demands of the less well-off rising. Putin is powerful, but he is no longer calling all the shots: for the first time in more than a decade, other political leaders are emerging. The new situation in Russia calls for a deeper understanding of the country’s evolution based on new evidence.

  • Op-Ed
    Putin Ends the Interregnum
    Lilia Shevtsova August 28, 2014 American Interest

    Vladimir Putin’s increasingly reckless interventions in Ukraine should force the West to reevaluate everything it thought it knew about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the past two decades of Western policy on Russia.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Can Germany Save Ukraine?
    Dmitri Trenin August 28, 2014 National Interest

    Berlin is critical to any future settlement of the Ukraine crisis. It is too difficult to reach a deal on the settlement, but the absence of any deal deemed minimally acceptable to all sides would steer Europe toward an abyss.

     
  • Op-Ed
    As US, EU Close Doors, China, Russia Open New Ones
    Dmitri Trenin August 24, 2014 Global Times

    Russia’s efforts to find an acceptable place for itself in the U.S.-led Western system have ended in a bitter disappointment. The changing trading patterns point to a new era in Moscow’s foreign relations, in which Sino-Russian relations will be taking center stage.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Putin Will Not Accept Defeat
    Eugene Rumer August 15, 2014 POLITICO Magazine Русский

    Kyiv and Moscow are on a collision course. They may already be past the point of no return where a negotiated solution might have kept the crisis from escalating.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Putin’s Fateful Choice
    Dmitri Trenin August 10, 2014 EL PAÍS Spanish Русский

    Prudence dictates that Russia should not invade Ukraine. However, if Putin decides differently, the Ukraine crisis will immediately become a Russia crisis, and then a European one.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Is Putin Really Cornered?
    Andrew S. Weiss August 8, 2014 International New York Times Русский

    Even now, six months into the Ukrainian crisis, Western leaders don’t know how far Vladimir Putin will go in Ukraine. The United States should immediately re-establish real channels of communication with Putin and his inner circle.

     
  • Op-Ed
    China’s Victory in Ukraine
    Dmitri Trenin July 31, 2014 Project Syndicate Русский German 中文

    China will study U.S. strategy toward Russia and draw its own conclusions. Its interests are in keeping Russia as its stable strategic hinterland and a natural-resource base.

     
  • Article
    Ukraine and the New Divide

    The Ukraine crisis has ended the period in Russian-Western relations that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and has opened a new period of heightened rivalry, even confrontation, between former Cold War adversaries.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Europe’s Nightmare Coming True: America vs. Russia...Again
    Dmitri Trenin July 29, 2014 National Interest Русский

    Russia is learning to live in a new harsh environment of U.S.-led economic sanctions and political confrontation with the United States.

     
  • Op-Ed
    MH17, Part of Larger Ukraine Crisis, Likely to be Politicized
    Dmitri Trenin July 27, 2014 Global Times

    The MH17 crisis within the larger Ukraine crisis is likely to lead to the politicization of the conflict.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Decade After, Terrorism Remains a Threat
    Alexey Malashenko September 4, 2014

    Russian terrorism is deeply rooted in politics, religion, and social issues. Also, it is part and parcel of the global radical movement. Ten years after the terrorist attack on a school in Beslan, the repeat of that tragedy is still possible.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Switching Aims
    Mikhail Krutikhin September 2, 2014

    The only possible source of money for the Power of Siberia pipeline is no one else but China, and the terms of this assistance will be dictated from Beijing. The Kremlin’s inability to come to terms with the Western world does not come cheap.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Historical Change
    Dmitri Trenin August 25, 2014

    Under Putin, it seems that there will be no more celebration of the end of Communist rule: the price paid for it is now deemed to be too high.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    WWI Lessons for Today
    Dmitri Trenin August 4, 2014

    Going to war in 1914 was suicidal for the Russian state. Today, a Russian military invasion of Ukraine might well lead to a catastrophe with dire consequences for Russia itself, or to an all-out conflict between Russia and NATO.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Proxy War in Ukraine?
    July 31, 2014

    During the Cold War, both Washington and Moscow actively encouraged, financed, and supported proxy wars across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the eyes of many influential figures in Moscow, that is precisely what is happening in Ukraine today.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Battle for Russia
    Dmitri Trenin July 28, 2014

    The Kremlin now sees the U.S. goal as the toppling of the Putin regime. That said, expecting Putin to back off betrays a lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation. It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Heirs of the ’93 Russian White House
    Thomas de Waal July 23, 2014

    The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
    Lilia Shevtsova June 25, 2014

    Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Putin’s New (Old) Deal
    Sergei Aleksashenko June 24, 2014

    The initiatives outlined by Putin in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum may lay the groundwork for radical changes in economic policy.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Decade After, Terrorism Remains a Threat
    Alexey Malashenko September 4, 2014

    Russian terrorism is deeply rooted in politics, religion, and social issues. Also, it is part and parcel of the global radical movement. Ten years after the terrorist attack on a school in Beslan, the repeat of that tragedy is still possible.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Switching Aims
    Mikhail Krutikhin September 2, 2014

    The only possible source of money for the Power of Siberia pipeline is no one else but China, and the terms of this assistance will be dictated from Beijing. The Kremlin’s inability to come to terms with the Western world does not come cheap.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Putin Ends the Interregnum
    Lilia Shevtsova August 28, 2014 American Interest

    Vladimir Putin’s increasingly reckless interventions in Ukraine should force the West to reevaluate everything it thought it knew about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the past two decades of Western policy on Russia.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Can Germany Save Ukraine?
    Dmitri Trenin August 28, 2014 National Interest

    Berlin is critical to any future settlement of the Ukraine crisis. It is too difficult to reach a deal on the settlement, but the absence of any deal deemed minimally acceptable to all sides would steer Europe toward an abyss.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Historical Change
    Dmitri Trenin August 25, 2014

    Under Putin, it seems that there will be no more celebration of the end of Communist rule: the price paid for it is now deemed to be too high.

     
  • Op-Ed
    As US, EU Close Doors, China, Russia Open New Ones
    Dmitri Trenin August 24, 2014 Global Times

    Russia’s efforts to find an acceptable place for itself in the U.S.-led Western system have ended in a bitter disappointment. The changing trading patterns point to a new era in Moscow’s foreign relations, in which Sino-Russian relations will be taking center stage.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Putin Will Not Accept Defeat
    Eugene Rumer August 15, 2014 POLITICO Magazine Русский

    Kyiv and Moscow are on a collision course. They may already be past the point of no return where a negotiated solution might have kept the crisis from escalating.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Putin’s Fateful Choice
    Dmitri Trenin August 10, 2014 EL PAÍS Spanish Русский

    Prudence dictates that Russia should not invade Ukraine. However, if Putin decides differently, the Ukraine crisis will immediately become a Russia crisis, and then a European one.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Is Putin Really Cornered?
    Andrew S. Weiss August 8, 2014 International New York Times Русский

    Even now, six months into the Ukrainian crisis, Western leaders don’t know how far Vladimir Putin will go in Ukraine. The United States should immediately re-establish real channels of communication with Putin and his inner circle.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    WWI Lessons for Today
    Dmitri Trenin August 4, 2014

    Going to war in 1914 was suicidal for the Russian state. Today, a Russian military invasion of Ukraine might well lead to a catastrophe with dire consequences for Russia itself, or to an all-out conflict between Russia and NATO.

     

Carnegie Experts on Putin's Return

  • Lilia Shevtsova
    Senior Associate
    Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program
    Moscow Center

    Shevtsova chairs the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She has been with Carnegie since 1995.

  •  

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