20 Years of Leading Analysis

Putin's Return

 

Vladimir Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he has a different country to rule. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia will be unable to launch serious social and economic development unless its political system becomes more open and responsive. Russian society has been on the move, with more affluent consumers turning into citizens and the socio-economic demands of the less well-off rising. Putin is powerful, but he is no longer calling all the shots: for the first time in more than a decade, other political leaders are emerging. The new situation in Russia calls for a deeper understanding of the country’s evolution based on new evidence.

  • Eurasia Outlook
    Heirs of the ’93 Russian White House
    Thomas de Waal July 23, 2014

    The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
    Lilia Shevtsova June 25, 2014

    Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Putin’s New (Old) Deal
    Sergei Aleksashenko June 24, 2014

    The initiatives outlined by Putin in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum may lay the groundwork for radical changes in economic policy.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    What Does Narendra Modi’s Victory Mean for Moscow?
    Petr Topychkanov May 23, 2014

    The BJP’s election victory has changed India’s political landscape. Russia has close ties with the BJP, but serious steps are needed to elevate Russian-Indian relations to a new level.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Mystery, Wrapped in a Puzzle
    Mikhail Krutikhin May 23, 2014

    The secretive nature of the gas agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp may show that the contract contains something the Russian negotiators could not be proud of in the limelight of Russian public opinion.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Anti-Fascism and Its Discontents
    Thomas de Waal May 21, 2014

    The message in Moscow is that Ukraine has been taken over by “Fascists” and neo-Nazis: if the enemies are Fascists, then all means for combatting them are acceptable.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Military-Patriotic Mobilization and How It Will End
    Lilia Shevtsova May 20, 2014

    The worse the situation becomes in Russia, the better it looks in the eye of the people. This can be explained by mass self-deception and people’s desire to believe in a fairy tale. However, Russia is approaching a moment of truth when people will realize how serious the country’s problems are.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    China The Winner
    Eugene Rumer May 16, 2014

    Putin’s travel to China should demonstrate that Russia is not alone, and, no doubt, this visit will be a success. However, China can call the shots in the upcoming gas deal. If a deal is concluded on favorable terms, this will signal a big step toward securing the strategic partnership between the two countries.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    East Asia Is No Less Complex Than Ukraine: On President Putin’s Impending China Trip
    Akio Kawato May 16, 2014

    If the Kremlin allies with China too closely, it will not only estrange Russia from most of Asian countries, but also may provoke China’s appetite to gobble the newly-born child of Russia, the Eurasian Union.

     
  • Op-Ed
    China’s Victory in Ukraine
    Dmitri Trenin July 31, 2014 Project Syndicate

    China will study U.S. strategy toward Russia and draw its own conclusions. Its interests are in keeping Russia as its stable strategic hinterland and a natural-resource base.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Europe’s Nightmare Coming True: America vs. Russia...Again
    Dmitri Trenin July 29, 2014 National Interest Русский

    Russia is learning to live in a new harsh environment of U.S.-led economic sanctions and political confrontation with the United States.

     
  • Op-Ed
    MH17, Part of Larger Ukraine Crisis, Likely to be Politicized
    Dmitri Trenin July 27, 2014 Global Times

    The MH17 crisis within the larger Ukraine crisis is likely to lead to the politicization of the conflict.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Heirs of the ’93 Russian White House
    Thomas de Waal July 23, 2014

    The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Will MH17 Air Crash Damage Russia’s Putin?
    Dmitri Trenin July 22, 2014 BBC Русский

    If the investigators’ verdict on the Malaysia Airlines plane crash does eventually fall against Russia, Vladimir Putin will survive politically, but will have to work hard to restore faith in him, and his good fortune.

     
  • TV/Radio Broadcast
    The Russian View of What Happened to Flight MH17
    Dmitri Trenin July 21, 2014 WBUR’s Here and Now

    With the international investigation of the Malaysian plane crash yet to begin in earnest, the West will base its understanding on evidence supplied mainly by the United States and Russia will see Western actions as punishment not for shooting down the plane, but rather for Moscow’s position on Ukraine.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Ready to Deal
    Dmitri Trenin July 14, 2014 German Times

    The Ukraine crisis is testing the complex relationship between Europe, America, and Russia. Yet the gap between the United States and its European allies, as far as policies toward Russia are concerned, is wide and deep.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Blurred Lines Between War and Peace
    Lilia Shevtsova July 11, 2014 American Interest

    Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.

     
  • Paper
    The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry
    Dmitri Trenin July 9, 2014

    Russia has stepped forward in Ukraine to protect its vital interests—which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.

     
  • Op-Ed
    U.S. Sanctions May Aid Russian Reform
    Dmitri Trenin July 7, 2014 Global Times Русский

    Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.

     

Carnegie Experts on Putin's Return

  • Lilia Shevtsova
    Senior Associate
    Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program
    Moscow Center

    Shevtsova chairs the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She has been with Carnegie since 1995.

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