20 Years of Leading Analysis

Putin's Return

 

Vladimir Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he has a different country to rule. It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia will be unable to launch serious social and economic development unless its political system becomes more open and responsive. Russian society has been on the move, with more affluent consumers turning into citizens and the socio-economic demands of the less well-off rising. Putin is powerful, but he is no longer calling all the shots: for the first time in more than a decade, other political leaders are emerging. The new situation in Russia calls for a deeper understanding of the country’s evolution based on new evidence.

  • Op-Ed
    Blurred Lines Between War and Peace
    Lilia Shevtsova July 11, 2014 American Interest

    Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.

     
  • Op-Ed
    U.S. Sanctions May Aid Russian Reform
    Dmitri Trenin July 7, 2014 Global Times Русский

    Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Moscow’s Task is to Build a Nation Not an Empire
    Dmitri Trenin July 1, 2014 Financial Times Русский

    If Russia wants to stay in the game of global competition, it has no choice but to work toward becoming a civic nation, a rules-based polity, and a modern economy.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Crowning a Winner in the Post-Crimea World
    Lilia Shevtsova June 16, 2014 American Interest

    Does liberal democracy depend on the existence of ideological and civilizational rivals to spur it into cycles of reinvention and renewal?

     
  • Op-Ed
    Obama Blinks
    Lilia Shevtsova June 3, 2014 American Interest

    Barack Obama’s recent remarks at West Point show that he doesn’t understand the rules of the game he’s playing with Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Bravo, Ukraine, Bravo!
    Lilia Shevtsova May 26, 2014 American Interest

    The elections in Ukraine demonstrate that Ukrainians have decisively chosen to turn toward Europe.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Close Ranks
    Vladimir Dvorkin, Alexei Arbatov May 25, 2014 Foreign Affairs Русский

    Even as relations sour between Russia and Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian defense-industrial cooperation remains very important for both countries. They both stand to lose if it wanes.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Gas Deal Entails China-Russia Strategic Depth
    Dmitri Trenin May 25, 2014 Global Times 中文

    The Sino-Russian gas deal emphasizes and accelerates the fading of Russia’s until-now special relationship with the EU. The partnership between Russia and China is acquiring truly strategic depth.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Meet the Second-Rate Academic Who Is Vladimir Putin’s Culture Cop
    Maria Lipman May 23, 2014 New Republic

    Russian Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky’s primary motive is to curry favor with Vladimir Putin. As Putin has shifted gears to a more conservative, anti-Western, and isolationist outlook, scores of his aggressive loyalists have followed the new trend.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Russia Faces Tough Road to Success
    Dmitri Trenin May 19, 2014 China Daily

    Vladimir Putin’s first visit outside the former Soviet Union since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis is to China. The vector of Russian foreign policy has changed dramatically, and Russia has been seeking ways to strengthen ties with leading non-Western powers.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
    Lilia Shevtsova June 25, 2014

    Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Putin’s New (Old) Deal
    Sergei Aleksashenko June 24, 2014

    The initiatives outlined by Putin in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum may lay the groundwork for radical changes in economic policy.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    What Does Narendra Modi’s Victory Mean for Moscow?
    Petr Topychkanov May 23, 2014

    The BJP’s election victory has changed India’s political landscape. Russia has close ties with the BJP, but serious steps are needed to elevate Russian-Indian relations to a new level.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    A Mystery, Wrapped in a Puzzle
    Mikhail Krutikhin May 23, 2014

    The secretive nature of the gas agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp may show that the contract contains something the Russian negotiators could not be proud of in the limelight of Russian public opinion.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Anti-Fascism and Its Discontents
    Thomas de Waal May 21, 2014

    The message in Moscow is that Ukraine has been taken over by “Fascists” and neo-Nazis: if the enemies are Fascists, then all means for combatting them are acceptable.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Military-Patriotic Mobilization and How It Will End
    Lilia Shevtsova May 20, 2014

    The worse the situation becomes in Russia, the better it looks in the eye of the people. This can be explained by mass self-deception and people’s desire to believe in a fairy tale. However, Russia is approaching a moment of truth when people will realize how serious the country’s problems are.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    China The Winner
    Eugene Rumer May 16, 2014

    Putin’s travel to China should demonstrate that Russia is not alone, and, no doubt, this visit will be a success. However, China can call the shots in the upcoming gas deal. If a deal is concluded on favorable terms, this will signal a big step toward securing the strategic partnership between the two countries.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    East Asia Is No Less Complex Than Ukraine: On President Putin’s Impending China Trip
    Akio Kawato May 16, 2014

    If the Kremlin allies with China too closely, it will not only estrange Russia from most of Asian countries, but also may provoke China’s appetite to gobble the newly-born child of Russia, the Eurasian Union.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Ukraine Will Not Die, But It Can Multiply
    Dmitri Trenin May 12, 2014

    Russia certainly pursues its interests in Ukraine, as does the United States, but the actual forces engaged there are the locals. The victorious Maidan has proven both unwilling and powerless to bridge or stitch together the fault lines which have emerged.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Blurred Lines Between War and Peace
    Lilia Shevtsova July 11, 2014 American Interest

    Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.

     
  • Paper
    The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry
    Dmitri Trenin July 9, 2014

    Russia has stepped forward in Ukraine to protect its vital interests—which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.

     
  • Op-Ed
    U.S. Sanctions May Aid Russian Reform
    Dmitri Trenin July 7, 2014 Global Times Русский

    Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Moscow’s Task is to Build a Nation Not an Empire
    Dmitri Trenin July 1, 2014 Financial Times Русский

    If Russia wants to stay in the game of global competition, it has no choice but to work toward becoming a civic nation, a rules-based polity, and a modern economy.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
    Lilia Shevtsova June 25, 2014

    Russian state and national identity are still based on the search for the enemy. However, the patriotic euphoria that followed Crimea has begun to wear off. As the Kremlin attempts to understand what to do next in Ukraine, it has become clear that Russians are not prepared to pay for it with their lives.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Putin’s New (Old) Deal
    Sergei Aleksashenko June 24, 2014

    The initiatives outlined by Putin in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum may lay the groundwork for radical changes in economic policy.

     
  • Eurasia Outlook
    Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission
    Alexey Malashenko June 19, 2014

    The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Crowning a Winner in the Post-Crimea World
    Lilia Shevtsova June 16, 2014 American Interest

    Does liberal democracy depend on the existence of ideological and civilizational rivals to spur it into cycles of reinvention and renewal?

     
  • Op-Ed
    Obama Blinks
    Lilia Shevtsova June 3, 2014 American Interest

    Barack Obama’s recent remarks at West Point show that he doesn’t understand the rules of the game he’s playing with Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Bravo, Ukraine, Bravo!
    Lilia Shevtsova May 26, 2014 American Interest

    The elections in Ukraine demonstrate that Ukrainians have decisively chosen to turn toward Europe.

     

Carnegie Experts on Putin's Return

  • Maria Lipman
    Scholar in Residence
    Society and Regions Program
    Editor in Chief, Pro et Contra
    Moscow Center

    Lipman is the editor in chief of the Pro et Contra journal, published by the Carnegie Moscow Center. She is also the expert of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Society and Regions Program.

  •  
  • Lilia Shevtsova
    Senior Associate
    Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program
    Moscow Center

    Shevtsova chairs the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She has been with Carnegie since 1995.

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