Carnegie Moscow Center
Putin’s current conciliatory tone and his support of the Ukrainian “dialogue” should be interpreted not as a change of his doctrine but a change of tactics.
The crisis in Ukraine may lead to unpredictable consequences inside Russia—from another perestroika to complete collapse.
Neither Russia nor the West is going to be able secure its goals for Ukraine all by itself or without serious bloodshed. Any attempt to “win” Ukraine will almost certainly lead to the country’s collapse and de facto partition.
After the May 25 poll, a new president of Ukraine will hardly inaugurate stability. One can only hope that Ukraine decides its future before it turns into a burnt-out case.
There are many Ukrainians, even in the southeast, who have grown accustomed to Ukrainian independence and would resist efforts to fragment Ukraine and force the annexation or creation of quasi-independent republics.
If Washington and Moscow move forward with creating a multilateral nuclear arms reduction dialogue, they should look first to France and the United Kingdom.
After the end of the Cold War, the West neglected the task of solving the “Russia problem” through integration. Trying to solve it now through economic warfare is not going to work.
Putin’s rhetorical shift toward calm and congeniality shows that now Putin is presenting himself as a victor who has formulated and applied the new rules of the game.
Strong Japanese-Russian relations are economically beneficial and a strategic counterbalance against China’s influence. But the Ukraine crisis and Japan’s U.S. loyalties could have damaging effects.
The European Union continues to be in the back seat of a process that threatens Ukraine and which fundamentally affects the EU’s relations with Moscow.