Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s article on Ukraine demonstrates that the Russian regime is simultaneously making conflicting statements and moving in opposite directions.
To keep Ukraine in one piece, and at peace with itself, the Ukrainians evidently need to reform their political system. The West and Russia should help the Ukrainian parties reach an agreement on the parameters of a federal parliamentary republic.
The 50th Munich Security Conference marked the charting of a course toward Berlin’s more robust engagement in the world, including with military means. At the same time, the conference was overshadowed by the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.
The European Union has proven powerless to prevent a tragic spiral of lethal violence in Kyiv. In addition, its image amongst protestors has suffered. Now the key challenge for the EU is to begin shaping the conditions that will facilitate deeper democratic reform in Ukraine.
Ukrainians on the Maidan and in a growing number of cities across the country are standing in opposition to backsliding into autocracy, in defense of fundamental democratic values, and in defiance of a corrupt post-Soviet system.
Ukraine is in for a long ordeal that has just begun. The previously dormant segments of Ukrainian society are getting involved in the protests. Meanwhile, the regime is ready to defend itself by any available means.
Since the crisis in Ukraine is climaxing, the Munich Security Conference will have to deal with the Ukrainian question. The Munich event that was supposed to be devoted to security problems takes on a larger significance—it is supposed to raise the question of civilizational split.
