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25.09.2020
Advantageous Ambiguity: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

Advantageous Ambiguity: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

Israel’s “anonymous” nuclear arsenal will remain the most important component of the military balance in the Middle East for the foreseeable future, and a significant driver of discord between Tel Aviv and other states in the region, complicating prospects for strengthening the non-proliferation regime in the Middle East
23.09.2020
What Russia Doesn’t Get About Germany

What Russia Doesn’t Get About Germany

Moscow has repeatedly rejected any responsibility for its most contentious actions. As a result, Berlin’s trust and willingness to invest in the relationship with Russia has been wearing down for years.
16.09.2020
Can Moscow Manage a Power Transition in Belarus?

Can Moscow Manage a Power Transition in Belarus?

From an overripe apple that looked sure to drop into Moscow’s lap all on its own, the Belarusian regime is increasingly coming to resemble a toxic asset that’s as difficult to engage with as it is to get rid of.
16.09.2020
Russian-German Relations: Back to the Future

Russian-German Relations: Back to the Future

Berlin is ending the era launched by Gorbachev of a trusting and friendly relationship with Moscow. Russia, for its part, no longer expects anything from Germany, and therefore does not feel obliged to take into account its opinion or interests.
8.09.2020
Where Navalny’s Poisoning Is Taking Russia, at Home and Abroad

Where Navalny’s Poisoning Is Taking Russia, at Home and Abroad

Far from a purely internal or external affair, Alexei Navalny’s poisoning has shaken Russia’s domestic politics as well as its foreign relations. Although it is closer to its beginning than its end, the affair sheds light on the degradation of authoritarianism in Russia, the dynamic between Moscow and an embattled Alexander Lukashenko, and the difficult relations between Russia and the West, especially Germany.
7.09.2020
In Belarus, China Is Neither at Odds With Russia nor Wedded to Lukashenko

In Belarus, China Is Neither at Odds With Russia nor Wedded to Lukashenko

Courted by Alexander Lukashenko since the 2000s, China has gradually expanded its presence, economic and otherwise, in Belarus. However, its strengthening position there has not come at Russia’s expense, and, as unrest spreads following last month’s presidential election, there is little reason to expect China to step in to rescue the embattled president.
1.09.2020
Domestic Geopolitics: Belarusian Protests and Russia’s Power Transition

Domestic Geopolitics: Belarusian Protests and Russia’s Power Transition

Any internal political activity is becoming conclusively geopoliticized. Elections in Belarus or Russia, for example, are not an expression of feedback between the public and the government, but an act of defensive foreign policy.
31.08.2020
In Libya’s War, Russia Is Directionless—and Falling Behind

In Libya’s War, Russia Is Directionless—and Falling Behind

At some level, Russia’s approach to the war in Libya seems successful. Yet Russia can only achieve so much without a clear idea of what its interests in Libya are and what the country is good for beyond a demonstration of the influence Moscow has gained by intervening militarily in Syria—possibilities that are shrinking as the United States turns its attention anew to the country’s years-long war.
26.08.2020
Navalny’s Poisoning Is the Act of a Sickly Regime

Navalny’s Poisoning Is the Act of a Sickly Regime

The formation of a “protection services” market is a dangerous trend for the Russian power system. Navalny may have been poisoned by people who believe that the regime is no longer capable of dealing with threats itself.
22.08.2020
Dictator’s Dilemma: Why Lukashenko Is Still Clinging On

Dictator’s Dilemma: Why Lukashenko Is Still Clinging On

Lukashenko faced the classic autocrat’s dilemma: avoid a revolution by making compromises and introducing elements of real democracy, or—regardless of the growing price of hanging on to power—fall back on costly repression with costly consequences.
17.08.2020
Turmoil in Belarus: Looking Beyond the Horizon

Turmoil in Belarus: Looking Beyond the Horizon

Friends of Belarus need to recognize that a revolution is not the end, but merely the beginning of what is certain to be a long and difficult road toward making it a “normal country.” 
17.08.2020
Game Over for Lukashenko: the Kremlin’s Next Move

Game Over for Lukashenko: the Kremlin’s Next Move

The Kremlin has had enough of Lukashenko, but it cannot allow Belarus to follow the path of Ukraine and become another anti-Russian, NATO-leaning bulwark on its borders.
15.08.2020
Belarus’s Fight for Freedom

Belarus’s Fight for Freedom

The impending collapse of the Belarusian regime and whatever comes next reveal a lot more than events in Ukraine did about possible political transformation in Russia.
13.08.2020
Belarus Protests Signal the Autumn of Lukashenko’s Regime

Belarus Protests Signal the Autumn of Lukashenko’s Regime

It’s not yet clear how the country will emerge from this political crisis, but it’s safe to say things won’t go back to the way they were.
10.08.2020
Can Russia-West Divide Save “Europe’s Last Dictator” in Belarus?

Can Russia-West Divide Save “Europe’s Last Dictator” in Belarus?

Both Russia and the West may be sick and tired of the mercurial Belarusian autocrat, but they still see him as the lesser evil.
5.08.2020
Developing Artificial Intelligence in Russia: Objectives and Reality

Developing Artificial Intelligence in Russia: Objectives and Reality

Even if AI development becomes Russia’s highest priority, Moscow has no chance of catching up with Washington and Beijing in this field. Under favorable conditions, however, Russia is quite capable of becoming a serious player and even a local leader in certain areas.
4.08.2020
Mercenaries’ Arrests Deepen Minsk-Moscow Rift

Mercenaries’ Arrests Deepen Minsk-Moscow Rift

Whatever the truth behind the arrests of alleged Russian mercenaries in Belarus, the incident cannot fail to exacerbate the main problem in the relationship between Minsk and Moscow: a protracted crisis of trust.
31.07.2020
Russia’s Permanent Revolution of Dignity

Russia’s Permanent Revolution of Dignity

Each new wave of Russian protests since 2011—whether political or initially depoliticized (over landfills, housing development projects and so on)—is at heart prompted by an insult to people’s dignity.
27.07.2020
Russia’s In-System Opposition Gets Second Chance in Khabarovsk

Russia’s In-System Opposition Gets Second Chance in Khabarovsk

In appointing LDPR deputy Degtyarev as the new governor of Khabarovsk, Putin is not promoting one of his own men, but making the LDPR responsible for extinguishing the fire of discontent raging in the region.
23.07.2020
Can Russia Mediate New Clashes Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Can Russia Mediate New Clashes Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

It’s in neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan’s interests for Russia to pick a side in their conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh would go from being a unique place where Russia and the West cooperate to yet another theater for their rivalry, with all the ensuing risks and dangers.
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