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30.03.2020
China Looms Large in Central Asia

China Looms Large in Central Asia

China is gradually laying down the foundations for the construction of a Pax Sinica in Central Asia. This is particularly successful in certain sectors of the economy, but Beijing’s policy has come up against constraints, both within Central Asia and outside of it.
27.03.2020
What Doesn’t Kill the EU Will Make It Stronger

What Doesn’t Kill the EU Will Make It Stronger

EU moves to coordinate efforts against the new coronavirus, relax regulatory enforcement, and demonstrate solidarity can help to show that the European Union can provide added value to individual EU countries, and that it remains a force to be reckoned with.
26.03.2020
Pandemic Unsettles Ukraine’s Zelensky

Pandemic Unsettles Ukraine’s Zelensky

In Ukraine, the chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic combined with the country’s existing political problems could sharpen the appetite for authoritarianism in Ukrainian society.
25.03.2020
Coronavirus Inflames Russia-Belarus Quarrel

Coronavirus Inflames Russia-Belarus Quarrel

Having closed the border, even for six weeks, Russia has taken yet another psychologically important step in the process of its estrangement from Belarus.
24.03.2020
How Is Russia Coping With Coronavirus?

How Is Russia Coping With Coronavirus?

As of March 23, Russia had reported 438 cases of coronavirus and one disputed death. But there is growing speculation in the West over whether official figures can be trusted and whether the Kremlin might be making use of the pandemic to further its own ends.
20.03.2020
Russia and Turkey: Flexible Rivals

Russia and Turkey: Flexible Rivals

If the relationship between Russia and Turkey is a marriage of convenience, then right now the two sides are staying in it purely for the sake of the children: i.e., the political investments that Putin and Erdogan have made in developing bilateral relations when not everyone approved.
20.03.2020
Confronting the Challenges of Coronavirus, Russia Sees Its Worldview Vindicated

Confronting the Challenges of Coronavirus, Russia Sees Its Worldview Vindicated

As the Kremlin prepares to manage the public health emergency and an economic slowdown, it’s coming to view the global disarray as affirmation of its ideology.
19.03.2020
Russia Battles New Economic Crisis on Three Fronts

Russia Battles New Economic Crisis on Three Fronts

The current economic turbulence resembles a fire at an explosives warehouse during a flood and an earthquake, all at the same time.
18.03.2020
Putin’s Coup: Cunning Plan or Improvisation?

Putin’s Coup: Cunning Plan or Improvisation?

Whether Putin wanted to be persuaded to stay on, was testing his entourage for their readiness for a power transition, or was simply waiting for the right moment, we may never know. But there is no evidence that he was preparing to choose a successor.
13.03.2020
War With OPEC Can’t End Well for Russia

War With OPEC Can’t End Well for Russia

Falling oil prices leave no chance Russia’s GDP will grow in 2020—a bleak prospect for both ordinary people and once optimistic investors.
13.03.2020
Keeping His Options Open: Why Putin Decided to Stay On

Keeping His Options Open: Why Putin Decided to Stay On

Putin, a man torn by conflicting impulses, has opted for stability in moving to stay on as president after 2024. In doing so, he surprised the elite and even some in the presidential administration, deceiving those around him—though not the public—with his talk of changes in leadership and overhauling Russia’s political system. His real intentions are impossible to know, but his priority is clear: keeping his options open.
13.03.2020
Russia’s Far East Seeks Partners Beyond China

Russia’s Far East Seeks Partners Beyond China

Chinese investment in Russia’s Far East is precisely what it should be given the current level of the region’s development. Most of the Far East is more focused on obtaining subsidies from Moscow than foreign investment.
11.03.2020
Putin’s Choice: What do Russia’s Latest Constitutional Maneuvers Mean?

Putin’s Choice: What do Russia’s Latest Constitutional Maneuvers Mean?

A new Russian state is taking shape that is unashamedly authoritarian in design. If Russia ever wants to return to the European model, it will have to dismantle the entire political legacy that this regime has built.
6.03.2020
Ukraine’s Unromantic Reshuffle

Ukraine’s Unromantic Reshuffle

Having dismissed his young government, President Zelensky risks joining the ranks of Ukraine’s failed reformers. The reshuffle is being seen as a victory for business as usual and oligarchic interests.
5.03.2020
How Coronavirus Beat Big Brother in China

How Coronavirus Beat Big Brother in China

The outbreak of coronavirus in China has exposed the weak spots of the country’s Big Brother system. It turns out that China’s extensive network of facial recognition cameras is useless in the face of a simple surgical mask.
3.03.2020
Podcast: Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the U.S.-China Trade War

Podcast: Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the U.S.-China Trade War

Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev and The Financial Times’ Asia editor Jamil Anderlini discuss coronavirus, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, and the geopolitical dynamics in Asia-Pacific.
17.02.2020
German Election Scandal Reflects Europe’s Changing Landscape

German Election Scandal Reflects Europe’s Changing Landscape

There is little reason to expect that the far-right Alternative for Germany party will become a leading political force. Yet the political landscape will inevitably take on a different form, as Merkel-era centrism gives way to growing ideological polarization.
13.02.2020
Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

Don’t Expect an Economic Miracle in Putin’s Russia

The main task of Putin’s economic policy is to collect as much in taxes as possible. This is why the man who successfully transformed the Federal Tax Service is now head of the government.
12.02.2020
Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Last Man Standing: How Avakov Survived in Ukraine

Arsen Avakov has survived Ukraine’s change of regime. President Zelensky needs him because of his links to the dark side of the Ukrainian deep state, against which the president’s young reformers are often powerless. The omnipotent minister is prepared to put aside his personal ambition to become the regime’s informal mainstay.
11.02.2020
Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

A row over energy prices is a sign that Belarus and Russia are set to have a cooler and more pragmatic relationship. Over the next few years, Minsk is likely to build a more balanced relationship with the West and Moscow, like that of Armenia or Kazakhstan.
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