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28.01.2020
Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

Belarus’s resolution to become less dependent on Russian oil has nothing to do with its economy. Minsk is making a political statement with the aim of depriving Moscow of one of its main bargaining chips in their relationship.
23.01.2020
Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s New Government Is Its Least Political Yet

Russia’s new cabinet ministers are young, efficient, nonconfrontational, adaptable, and don’t poke their noses into politics. They live in the digital world that is so difficult for the country’s aging leadership to understand. With time, the victim of this technocratic dominance may be that very same leadership.
22.01.2020
Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Cracks Emerge in Ukraine’s Ruling Party

Faced with a fluctuating approval rating, President Zelensky is attempting to instill order in his party’s ranks. The voting machine that he built from his parliamentary majority is beginning to malfunction as deputies refuse to be mere cogs in that machine.
21.01.2020
Enter Mishustin: The New Russian Prime Minister’s Agenda

Enter Mishustin: The New Russian Prime Minister’s Agenda

Mikhail Mishustin is replacing Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister of Russia after nearly a decade as director of the Federal Tax Service (FNS). Russians can expect a shift in emphasis from taxation to the allocation of funds as Mishustin draws on his management skills to make government spending as orderly and transparent as taxation became under his leadership.
20.01.2020
Russia Prepares for New Tandemocracy

Russia Prepares for New Tandemocracy

Putin’s proposed amendments to various roles amount to something resembling an insurance policy, which suggests that the president has already decided who his successor will be, though he may not name that person for another three years.
17.01.2020
Did Putin Just Appoint Himself President for Life?

Did Putin Just Appoint Himself President for Life?

President Putin’s unexpected proposals this week to change the Russian constitution prompted the instant resignation of the Russian government. What’s he trying to achieve, and will he succeed?
16.01.2020
Planning for a (Not-So) Post-Putin Russia

Planning for a (Not-So) Post-Putin Russia

Of the constitutional reforms put forward by Putin, what will really change a lot is the proposal to give the Russian constitution—including repressive Russian legislation—priority over international law. This violation of the usual hierarchy is nothing short of a legal revolution.
13.01.2020
Can Russia and Turkey Bring Peace to Libya?

Can Russia and Turkey Bring Peace to Libya?

Having declared themselves mediators in the civil war in Libya, Russia and Turkey will try to replicate the model of cooperation and mutual accommodation they developed in Syria.
7.01.2020
The Iran Crisis Can Be a Boost for Russia

The Iran Crisis Can Be a Boost for Russia

If Syria becomes the setting for a clash between Washington and Tehran, this could be a major problem for Moscow. Until now—and not without Soleimani’s help—Moscow had always managed to find a compromise with the pro-Iran forces in Syria. It’s not clear how the situation will develop now.
30.12.2019
Podcast: Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?

Podcast: Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?

Alexander Gabuev discusses Gazprom's Power of Siberia project with energy analyst Sergei Kapitonov.
19.12.2019
Did Emmanuel Macron Hand the Balkans to Russia?

Did Emmanuel Macron Hand the Balkans to Russia?

The concentration of pro-Russia gestures in the Western Balkans cement the impression that a major expansion of the Kremlin’s influence in the region is in the cards. But there’s another possible reading of the fallout from Macron’s high-handed behavior.
18.12.2019
Reinvigorating the Europe-Asia Partnership

Reinvigorating the Europe-Asia Partnership

At meetings like ASEM we create the environment and the conditions to enhance the connections we have between our societies and our citizens. This is the real goal of frameworks such as ASEM
18.12.2019
European Security Is Becoming Euro-Asian

European Security Is Becoming Euro-Asian

The world is probably entering a period of new bipolarity, in which the main players will be the United States and China. The situation will prompt various states to address the question of how they relate to the new central axis of global rivalry, this time between Washington and Beijing.
16.12.2019
Upcoming Elections Mean New Economic Policy in Russia

Upcoming Elections Mean New Economic Policy in Russia

The president’s withdrawal from economic issues leaves politicians of a certain type with room to maneuver. Their hope is to formulate a new economic path that they may even be allowed to put into practice. If they are lucky, and if Putin decides to vacate the Kremlin in 2024, they will be implementing this path from the office of the president.
13.12.2019
Moscow Protest Cases Show Public Opinion Can No Longer Be Ignored

Moscow Protest Cases Show Public Opinion Can No Longer Be Ignored

Something has obviously changed in the legal system, and that something is the logic of repression. Despite all the skepticism, it seems that public opinion does play a role in the degree of repression in each particular case.
12.12.2019
Why the Normandy Summit Was Not a Waste of Time

Why the Normandy Summit Was Not a Waste of Time

Solving humanitarian problems and stabilizing the area around the line of contact is the bare minimum outcome of talks on Ukraine that all sides consider necessary. At the same time, each side suspects that for its opponents, this minimum is also the maximum in terms of what is politically acceptable.
11.12.2019
Is the Kremlin Finally Ready to Play Hardball with Belarus?

Is the Kremlin Finally Ready to Play Hardball with Belarus?

Russia needs Belarus and Lukashenko to serve as an alluring example to other post-Soviet rulers of how beneficial integration with Russia can be. As long as Moscow has the ambition of preserving its influence over the post-Soviet states, any Russian leader will need Lukashenko as a showcase ally.
5.12.2019
Russia Taps Into Chinese Gas Market via Power of Siberia Pipeline

Russia Taps Into Chinese Gas Market via Power of Siberia Pipeline

The Power of Siberia pipeline is a long overdue step in the right direction in developing the strategic relationship with China in the gas sector. Yet plenty of questions remain about the implementation of future pipeline projects.
4.12.2019
What the New EU Leadership Should Do About Russia

What the New EU Leadership Should Do About Russia

Macron is right about the need to see relations with Russia in the context of a changing international system. At the same time, there must be a sober assessment of what is and is not possible between the EU and Russia.
2.12.2019
What the End of the INF Treaty Means for China

What the End of the INF Treaty Means for China

Beijing perceives the U.S. withdrawal from the INF and possible deployment of ground-based missiles to Asia as part of Washington’s broader campaign to contain China. Overall, China can be fairly confident regarding its chances in a potential missile race in Asia, thanks to several advantages.
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