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27.11.2019
United Russia’s Rehabilitation Means a Tightening of the Screws

United Russia’s Rehabilitation Means a Tightening of the Screws

The ruling party will clearly retain its central place under any future scenario for the transition of power, and anyone who hurries to jump on the bandwagon today will likely come out on top.
22.11.2019
Life After the Coalition: What Now for Moldova?

Life After the Coalition: What Now for Moldova?

The pro-Russia Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova has managed to accumulate an impressive amount of institutional power. But this concentration of power brings not only advantages, but also greater vulnerabilities, especially when there are plenty of destabilizing factors at work, from uncertain gas supplies to mass voting by residents of the breakaway region Transnistria.
20.11.2019
Podcast: Five Years After Crimea, How Is Russian Trade Doing?

Podcast: Five Years After Crimea, How Is Russian Trade Doing?

This podcast focuses on Russian trade since 2014, when the country started to turn away from the West and increase its exposure to China. Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Tatiana Flegontova and Janis Kluge.
14.11.2019
Investment in Russia Remains a Lottery, Despite Government Promises

Investment in Russia Remains a Lottery, Despite Government Promises

The Russian authorities’ attempts to improve conditions for entrepreneurs are not very predictable, and the new investment regime is constructed in such a way that state control over investment projects will grow, while most state support will go to state capitalists and companies close to them.
12.11.2019
Ukraine’s New Economic Policy Juggles Populism With Libertarianism

Ukraine’s New Economic Policy Juggles Populism With Libertarianism

Zelensky’s economic path has turned out to be as contradictory as his political path. Various promises ranging from libertarian reforms to classic social populism are hindering the implementation of any meaningful policy.
8.11.2019
Double Jeopardy: Why Moscow’s Demands Seem Unreasonable to Minsk

Double Jeopardy: Why Moscow’s Demands Seem Unreasonable to Minsk

Russia’s suggestion that Belarus resurrect a 1999 agreement to get compensation for Russia’s oil tax maneuver looks fairly cynical to Minsk. After all, by joining the EEU, in which single markets—including for energy commodities—are supposed to be created between 2018 and 2024, Belarus has already paid for all of its tariff preferences.
5.11.2019
Belt and Road and Beyond: China Makes Inroads Into South Caucasus

Belt and Road and Beyond: China Makes Inroads Into South Caucasus

At a time when demand for diversified foreign policy in the South Caucasus is clear, Beijing is building political frameworks that are attractive to countries in the region. In addition, China’s reluctance to get involved in the region’s internal problems makes it a convenient partner for everyone.
1.11.2019
Post-Putin Uncertainty Means a Jittery Russian Elite and Brittle Regime

Post-Putin Uncertainty Means a Jittery Russian Elite and Brittle Regime

Amid the uncertainty over what will happen when Putin steps down in 2024, everyone is striving to claim exclusive functions that could later be required by Putin during the implementation of his plan for the transition of power.
31.10.2019
No Sentiment, All Pragmatism as Russia Unveils New Approach to Africa

No Sentiment, All Pragmatism as Russia Unveils New Approach to Africa

The political framework for cooperation was agreed at the Russia-Africa summit, and with heads of state in attendance and a declaration signed, it was undoubtedly a success for Russia’s Foreign Ministry. As for an institutional economic framework for what is being billed as “Russia’s return to Africa,” it’s still early days.
30.10.2019
What’s Behind Protests Against China in Kazakhstan?

What’s Behind Protests Against China in Kazakhstan?

China has always been considered a convenient partner for Central Asian countries, because it asked for virtually nothing in exchange for investment. But unlike with Western countries, which state the terms of cooperation in advance, with China there are unspoken rules, including a taboo on acknowledging any problems in the relationship.
28.10.2019
Why Serbia Won’t Stop Playing the Russia Card Any Time Soon

Why Serbia Won’t Stop Playing the Russia Card Any Time Soon

As long as Serbia lacks a solution to the Kosovo dispute that it can sell both to its international partners and to people at home, and as long as Serbia is denied a clear path to EU integration, it will continue to keep the Russia card up its sleeve.
25.10.2019
Russia and China in Africa: Allies or Rivals?

Russia and China in Africa: Allies or Rivals?

Russia can’t compete with China in terms of their influence in Africa, so Moscow’s attempts to make inroads there do not alarm Beijing. But as China asserts itself in the role of the major power in Africa, Moscow’s dual influence (such as selling weapons to different sides of a conflict in the same country) could become an impediment to stabilization.
24.10.2019
A New Era of Arms Control: Myths, Realities and Options

A New Era of Arms Control: Myths, Realities and Options

Only the continuation of nuclear arms control can create the political and military conditions for eventual limitations of innovative weapons systems and technologies, as well as for a carefully thought through and phased shift to a multilateral format of nuclear disarmament.
23.10.2019
Might Before Rights: Russia Shakes Up Its Human Rights Council

Might Before Rights: Russia Shakes Up Its Human Rights Council

The replacement of Russia’s Human Rights Council head Mikhail Fedotov, who was completely loyal to the authorities, with United Russia party member Valery Fadeyev, determines the council’s status once and for all. It is first and foremost a presidential council, and only then a human rights council.
22.10.2019
Tacit Alliance: Russia and China Take Military Partnership to New Level

Tacit Alliance: Russia and China Take Military Partnership to New Level

By cooperating with China in the military sphere, Russia loses virtually nothing in terms of security, while making life difficult for the United States, strengthening its relationship with a key partner, and gaining an economic advantage.
21.10.2019
Should the United States Be Worried About Russian Activity in the Gulf?

Should the United States Be Worried About Russian Activity in the Gulf?

Considering the prospects for trade, Washington shouldn’t yet be concerned by the growth of Russian influence in the Gulf. It’s obvious, however, that Arab countries are being increasingly proactive in diversifying their connections. Moscow is simply making use of this to gain economic and political advantages.
14.10.2019
Why Japanese Investment in Russian LNG Is an Isolated Deal

Why Japanese Investment in Russian LNG Is an Isolated Deal

The purchase of a stake in Arctic LNG 2 by a Japanese consortium is certainly a significant step in the development of economic ties between Russia and Japan, but if the Russian government doesn’t quickly begin work on improving the country’s investment climate, this deal will not be the start of a torrent of Japanese investment, but rather a small island of success in a vast sea of missed opportunities.
10.10.2019
Specter of Revolution Looms Over Moves Toward Peace in Ukraine

Specter of Revolution Looms Over Moves Toward Peace in Ukraine

Street protests in Ukraine and the threat of destabilization are working to strengthen the authoritarian tendencies of President Zelensky’s rule. He sees that everywhere he has not managed to install his power vertical and his people, the seed of chaos and sabotage is germinating.
9.10.2019
Russia Facing Europe: A Provisional Road Map

Russia Facing Europe: A Provisional Road Map

Russia need not concern itself about a new security architecture in Europe: eventually, one will grow out of its ongoing confrontation with the United States, together with the combined impact of Moscow’s rapprochement with Beijing and the evolving rivalry between the United States and China.
7.10.2019
Ukraine Prepares to Grasp the Nettle of Its History Politics—Again

Ukraine Prepares to Grasp the Nettle of Its History Politics—Again

Two things have become clear following the dismissal of the head of Ukraine’s Institute of National Memory. First, Ukraine’s history politics must become more inclusive, and move away from the extremes of revolutionary fervor and the principles of party affiliation. Second, if the institute cannot be closed down, then it must be radically reformed. Above all, it must not be allowed to be monopolized by representatives of a single political persuasion.
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