Carnegie Moscow Center
Putin's return to the Kremlin may well act as an accelerator for revolution, because it means that the logic of personalized power will continue to stand in the way of regime change.
Each of the three previous four-year presidential terms in Russia—two of Vladimir Putin and one Dmitry Medvedev’s—has been marked by a different policy toward the West, and the new Putin’s six-year period opening in 2012 is likely to follow that pattern.
The Russian political system is likely to undergo some changes this year, perhaps even serious ones—not because Putin wants them, but because elements of Putin's inner circle are convinced that the government must take some of the protesters' demands seriously.
2012 is an election year for both Russia and the United States. Presidential elections have already taken place in Russia, and they will be held in the United States in November. It remains to be seen how these political changes might affect Russian-American relations.
Russia's Muslim community is divided, with much of its clergy fighting over leadership. This divide suits the Kremlin, which has no interest in a unified or strong Muslim minority.
Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he faces a significantly different Russia, because the country's situation has changed drastically. The previous Putin’s consensus between those in power and society has fallen apart.
Putin’s surprising decision to skip the G8 summit means that he is putting the stability of his power structure above his diplomatic engagements abroad.
Putin's return to power reveals Medvedev's supposedly reformist presidency for the farce it really was. Medvedev's legacy in one sentence: He enabled Putin's personalized rule to continue unabated.
The Russian empire is over, but the belief that Russia is finished as a serious global player might be premature. Today, Russia’s goals include modernizing, creating a nation-state, and finding the country’s new role in the world.
Putin remains the most powerful man in Russia, but the rallies, while failing to yield immediate political change, signal that serious societal shifts are underway.