Carnegie Moscow Center
Barack Obama’s re-election may signal predictability in U.S.-Russian relations, but this relationship needs to be upgraded from largely tactical to strategic.
Whoever wins the U.S. presidency, Washington’s Russia policy needs a reassessment and a rethink. The choice for the new administration lies between keeping Russia on the periphery of the U.S. foreign policy and treating Russia as an asset in America’s global strategy.
For Russians, Obama seems to be a better choice for the next U.S. president, but in general, the Kremlin and the Russian public are watching the U.S. election rather calmly. It is a sign that the countries are no longer enemies but are not great friends.
The United States needs to begin paying more attention to Russia as part of its Asia-Pacific strategy if it wants a more stable balance to emerge in this critical region.
The concept of nuclear disarmament as an essential condition for nuclear nonproliferation is again entering the realm of practical politics, but the movement toward nuclear disarmament is extremely difficult and fraught with great dangers.
The third presidential debate lacked a strategic vision for U.S. foreign policy toward Russia and China.
Russian-U.S.-Chinese relations in the sphere of strategic stability are becoming a popular topic of discussion among politicians, but analytical research on the topic is still in its beginning stages.
Moscow would probably prefer Obama to win in the U.S. presidential elections, but a Romney win would not be seen as a disaster. Romney's Cold War-style rhetoric fits into Putin’s worldview and helps him to mobilize his supporters.
The United States and Russia have reached an arms control impasse, and no new agreement is on the horizon. Concrete confidence-building measures could help build trust.
As the traditional Russian system predicated on personalized power heads toward its end, the United States can either continue to support the current system or it can recognize the transience of this system and thus help Russian society cope with the changes to come.