Carnegie Moscow Center
It is not clear how long the uncertainty over Ukraine’s new course will last. But the challenges that the country is facing are more obvious.
The situation in Ukraine is very unstable and dangerous, and Moscow's support of the delayed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and non-recognition of the new authorities in Kyiv only adds to the tension.
Crimea is the most serious potential conflict in postrevolutionary Ukraine. The crisis could lead to a hot war in Ukraine and dramatically increase tensions between Russia and the West—no effort should be spared to avert this scenario.
The collapse of the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine became another posthumous chapter in the breakup of the Soviet Union. It will severely curtail Russia’s leadership ambitions in the post-Soviet space.
As more or less the last international player that can make a pitch to all of Ukraine, the EU will need to re-tool the Eastern Partnership to make a credible offer to all Ukrainian citizens.
Russia and the EU are trying to pull Ukraine into their orbit rather than cooperating on what would be best for the country.
The Western media’s focus on Russia has ignored the fact that it was Ukraine’s revolution, made in Ukraine by Ukrainians. But now Ukraine’s domestic politics is full of uncertainty.
The Ukrainian drama is far from over, and the international actors bear responsibility for its length and excruciatingly painful results.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.