Carnegie Moscow Center
Only the first stage of revolution in Ukraine is over. The serious challenge for Ukraine is how the common people will be involved in controlling the new power.
Russia has far less influence in Ukraine than is commonly appreciated. Moscow’s best option is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine.
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.
As Ukraine is teetering on the brink of a civil war, the West and Russia have found themselves on the brink of new confrontation. Instead, they should cooperate on Ukraine and push the Ukrainian sides toward stopping violence.
The defeat of the Ukrainian regime was a severe blow to Vladimir Putin personally. Any victory of Ukrainian revolution could act as an inspiration for the Russian people as well.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s article on Ukraine demonstrates that the Russian regime is simultaneously making conflicting statements and moving in opposite directions.
Russia’s Eurasian Union project aims at integrating much of ex-Soviet Eurasia into an economic, political, and security unit. Before that can happen, however, Russia needs to better manage what it already has.
To keep Ukraine in one piece, and at peace with itself, the Ukrainians evidently need to reform their political system. The West and Russia should help the Ukrainian parties reach an agreement on the parameters of a federal parliamentary republic.
The 50th Munich Security Conference marked the charting of a course toward Berlin’s more robust engagement in the world, including with military means. At the same time, the conference was overshadowed by the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.