Carnegie Moscow Center
The protesters in Kiev have a real chance of ushering in a more democratic system. If taking sides with them means taking a stance against Russia’s Vladimir Putin, so be it.
Viktor Yanukovych is not ready to step back from the struggle for monopolistic power. His game with the West has only one purpose for him—to trade less humiliating conditions for surrender to the Kremlin.
Integrating Ukraine would have been a terrible deal for Russia. On the other hand, if the EU were to help Ukraine become more modern, Russia would be a net beneficiary.
If Europe decides to venture into Ukraine, then it should seriously invest in Ukraine, economically, financially, and politically. As for Russia, it would be better off to continue its policy of non-interference that it is officially maintaining now.
Ukraine has no choice but to make a deal with the EU, but the Europeans will need a long-term strategy to manage relations with Kiev.
Neither the opposition leaders nor President Yanukovych know how how hard they can push back as they struggle to find a solution to rising tensions in Ukraine.
The EU is structurally incapable of using forceful, uncompromising methods to get what it wants. Yet sometimes the ability to play political hardball is just what the EU needs.
Protests in Istanbul and Kiev have similar root causes and similar effects. The demonstrations have shown that citizens can and do take charge in their demand for freedom.
The choice between Russia and the West should be Ukraine’s, and Russia should respect that choice and structure its relations with its neighbor accordingly.
Recent protests in the Ukrainian capital are the biggest since the Orange Revolution of 2004. There are signs that this time around, things might turn out differently.