Carnegie Moscow Center
In recent years, the EU has displayed a lack of political will to become a serious global player. Next month’s Eastern Partnership summit is an opportunity not to be wasted.
A pro-European Ukraine would have huge advantages for Poland and the rest of the EU. But it would also have broader consequences for Eastern Europe’s complex web of interests.
Several years after the Polish presidential plane crash and the initial Russian-Polish rapprochement, the process of reconciliation has visibly stagnated. Moscow should again step forward and give this process a new lease on life.
Berlin is urging Kiev to reconsider its treatment of the imprisoned opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. But if Angela Merkel pushes too far, Russia will be the winner.
Ukraine will most probably sign an association agreement with the European Union. This is good news for Russia, including Vladimir Putin—although he would emphatically disagree.
Western Europeans should watch Central Europe carefully. Its obsessions should not be dismissed lightly, and its ambitions make good historical, political, and economic sense.
The Ukrainian elite has reached consensus on what it does not want—it does not want to be suffocated by the Kremlin’s embrace. For Putin the growing readiness of Ukraine to turn to Europe despite the formidable costs of this decision is a real disaster: his Eurasian Union cannot be a serious entity without the second large Slavic state limping along.
A special arrangement may be devised for the Eastern Partnership countries so that they can associate with both Russia and the EU. It would effectively serve to form a loose economic alliance between the EU and the Eurasian Union tied together by the common denominator: the Eastern Partnership nations.
Angela Merkel seems intent on doing the bare minimum in dealing with Vladimir Putin. She will need to do a lot more than that—not least when it comes to the Eastern neighborhood.
Merkel’s rule, apparently, means a break in Germany’s life due to the lack of new political elites and leaders.