Carnegie Moscow Center
Viktor Yanukovich will likely be the winner of the presidential election in Ukraine, and once in office, he will have to confront the biggest risk to Ukraine's independence and security: a continuation of divided government and policy paralysis.
Viktor Yanukovich's apparent victory in the second round of presidential elections should not be interpreted as the end of Ukraine's democratic experiment. Ukrainian politics is set to remain multi-polar for the foreseeable future.
The first round of the Ukrainian presidential election brought no particular surprises. Regardless of who wins in the second round, Russian-Ukrainian relations will get a positive new boost.
Whoever wins the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine must lead a country divided by identity issues and hit hard by the global financial meltdown, while maintaining a delicate balance between Western integration and Eastern cultural roots and affinities.
The West and Russia need to embark on a long and potentially rocky path toward creating a security community in Europe that would include both NATO members and nonmembers.
By embracing a soft power foreign policy fueled by a new focus on economic, intellectual and social renewal, Russia can emerge as a serious and indispensable global actor.
Russia retains interests throughout the post-Soviet regions, but Moscow’s considerable influence is no longer dominant.
When Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's secretary-general, addresses an audience at Carnegie Europe on Friday, 18th September, he will speak about the possibility of a new dialogue between two former foes – NATO and Russia. Dmitri Trenin suggests that these discussions could initially take place through the NATO-Russia Council of 2002, but in time, that they might spawn a new framework altogether.
Europe’s Eastern Partnership is the clearest indication so far of its capability and willingness to project soft power into what Moscow regards as its sphere of influence.
The recent protests in Moldova were sparked by allegations of rigged election results, but their roots lie in the Moldovan government's agreement with Russia to significantly slow down the process of Moldova's accession to the European Union.