Carnegie Moscow Center
2012 is an election year for both Russia and the United States. Presidential elections have already taken place in Russia, and they will be held in the United States in November. It remains to be seen how these political changes might affect Russian-American relations.
After the presidential election, which Vladimir Putin won, a significant portion of the population doubts the legitimacy of the election results. These doubts will contribute to the rise of social and political movements in Russia.
Russia has been in a post-empire state for the last 20 years. There is no way back to an empire now—Russia has passed the point of no return in this respect.
As Vladimir Putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for Russia’s future are unclear.
Relations between the West and Russia are still shifting as the West has yet to adjust to the post-Soviet reality and Russia has not settled on its relationship with the rest of the world.
Putin’s expected return to the presidency in early 2012 comes at a time of great economic uncertainty. Although Russia’s economy is stable at the moment, Russia will have to modernize in order to remain stable and competitive in the long run.
Twenty years after the end of the Soviet Union, Moscow should drop the notion of creating an exclusive power center in the post-Soviet space.
Too often, debate on the relationship between Europe and Russia is driven by events—including elections, changes in leadership, and summits—which may provide important policy openings but do not always allow for thoughtful consideration of the long-term factors that shape the relationship.
The regime of personalized power that Russians have grown accustomed to is at risk of collapse. The People’s Freedom Party “For Russia Without Arbitrariness and Corruption” aims to play a role in helping change Russian politics through legitimate means.
Russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage in the coming decade.