Carnegie Moscow Center
The idea of authoritarian modernization, or state capitalism, has become fashionable in the wake of the global financial crisis, but the examples of China and Russia demonstrate that it is ultimately a self-serving illusion.
To forge an effective partnership with Moscow, the EU must first understand Russia’s political, economic, and security designs, and how best to deal with another round of Putin.
Russia and China are suspicious of multilateral institutions created by the West and hostile to anything that could justify external intervention in a sovereign state’s affairs, but both are learning to use international forums to their advantage.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, Russia has substantial leverage in the post-Soviet space and is the EU's most important neighbor. However, in the coming decades Russia will face serious internal and international challenges.
Putin’s chances of hanging onto power in Russia are good, but he will need to accept a more open and competitive electoral process to avoid further alienating those who are sympathetic to the protest movement.
While Vladimir Putin is unlikely to give up power any time soon, the political and economic system he created is incapable of dealing with Russia’s rapidly changing conditions. Crises are likely unavoidable unless Russia changes and modernizes.
Russia’s recovery from the global economic crisis has been slow, constrained by a number of economic and political structural problems. Until they are resolved, these issues will continue to hinder Russia’s development.
Putin’s Russia—which raised living standards, increased political apathy, and led to sovereign democracy—is over. As parliamentary and presidential elections approach, long-simmering social, economic, and political disputes are spilling into the open, and public politics are returning to the fore.