Carnegie Moscow Center
Ukraine became the place where the open crisis of the post-Soviet model occurred. This means that the country may become only the first stage in the chain of future collapses. Also, with Russian invasion in Ukraine the entire international system that came into being after 1991 is starting to crumble.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and direct involvement in the destabilization of the southeast of Ukraine exemplifies Putin’s Doctrine. This concept is based on the premise that Russia can only exist as the center of the galaxy surrounded by the satellite-statelets.
The Ukrainian events develop rapidly with a great sense of alarm; it not only involves danger of terrorism in Moscow, but also entails a big risk for East Asia. The main question now is who would be ready to take charge of the situation.
The crisis in Crimea is perhaps the most dangerous point in Europe’s history since the end of the cold war. It is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the West and lead to changes in the global power balance.
Putin may yet find out what many others found out before him, that breaking a country is a lot easier than putting it back together.
If Putin follows through on his threat to invade Ukraine, the damage to Russia’s relations with the West will be deep and lasting.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
The voices from India in world discussions about Ukraine are of particular importance due to long tradition of non-alignment policy of this country and its good relations with both USSR/Russia and the West.
Some kind of political crisis in Crimea looks almost inevitable. At the moment the priority has to be stop having a military one as well.
With all eyes on the simmering crisis in Crimea, the new provisional Ukrainian government in Kyiv is sending few, if any signs that it is seeking reconciliation.