Carnegie Moscow Center
Last June's ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan, along with the performance of the country's new parliamentary system of government, will have wide-ranging implications for Central Asia and for regional security.
Parliamentary elections held in Kyrgyzstan on October 10 were the first under the country’s new constitution, which institutes a parliamentary system with a relatively weak president. They have shown the level of awareness in Kyrgyz society, demonstrating that people take an interest in their future.
Radical Islamist groups have become significant political powers in many parts of the world and the West has yet to establish a strategy for building relations with them.
The blast in Vladikavkaz is the latest episode in what is becoming a latent civil war in the North Caucasus, where the Russian authorities are facing an opposition with its own specific religious and political ideology.
The militant attack on Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s home village has shown the vulnerability of the Kadyrov regime, which is commonly considered the most successful in the North Caucasus and quite capable of guaranteeing stability.
The international community can help bring much-needed stability to Kyrgyzstan, which has experienced violent ethnic clashes as its leaders lay the groundwork for Central Asia’s first genuine parliamentary democracy.
As Moscow grapples with the question of whether to intervene to stop the violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, it is forced to confront a vexing issue: can Russia utilize its political and military potential to help resolve local and regional conflicts in Central Asia?
The U.N. special envoy to Kyrgyzstan is working alongside the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to bring a peaceful resolution to the crisis there. The United States should resist the temptation to engage in a backroom deal to decide Kyrgyzstan’s fate.
The Kyrgyz opposition forces have won control of the country, but if they cannot maintain their unity when the time comes to divide up governmental positions, their success may be short-lived.
The March bombings in Moscow have shown that efforts by the Kremlin to quiet the North Caucasus have only made rebel leaders more desperate and more willing to resort to terrorism to achieve their goals.