Carnegie Moscow Center
Following the Duma election in December, the political situation in Russia changed fundamentally. Social activity has sharply increased, and the new Russian middle class has awakened.
As China's power continues to grow, Russians need to rediscover themselves as a Euro-Pacific nation and strengthen ties to East Asia in order to avoid becoming Beijing's junior partner.
Vladimir Putin is expected to win Russia's presidential election on March 4, but growing popular alienation is likely to erode his power.
Russia has the opportunity to move beyond saving the doomed Syrian regime to save the country itself from civil war and devastation and to bring about a political transition that leads to a stable and democratic Syria.
The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost popular and political credibility, and this will likely result in the regime’s removal from power.
It is in both Moscow and Washington’s interests to find realistic ways to improve bilateral strategic relations.
It is not enough to urge Vladimir Putin to leave office. The Russian opposition must also seek the elimination of the autocratic model of power that Putin represents, and push for real constitutional political reform.
Without major political and social changes, Russia risks complete disintegration. Transforming Russia requires eliminating personalized power, the merger of state and business, and the country's imperial ambitions.
The recent bill on the State Duma elections seems like a concession to the opposition, but in reality it would actually be a serious obstacle to the development of a full-fledged multiparty system and the strengthening of representative government.
Vladimir Putin cannot survive a sustained, nonviolent protest movement unless he creates a regime change by changing himself and addressing corporate influence on politics.
Putin’s regime cannot maintain power within a liberal political atmosphere. In order to maintain control, the regime is likely to tighten its grip on power and reducing freedoms.
Moscow believes that stringent international sanctions against Iran will not put an end to the Iranian nuclear program or turn the Iranian people against their government and will also fail to stave off an Israeli airstrike.
The upcoming Seoul summit aims to reach consensus on securing nuclear materials against their use by militants. However, despite some progress in 2010, agreement may be harder to find this time.
While Russia will not help push Syrian President Bashar al-Assad out, it must be careful about the consequences of a dispute with multiple countries over Syria. However, the West, too, needs to be careful not to antagonize Russia on this issue.
While there are a number of reasons behind Moscow’s stance on Syria, confronting the West and increasing tension in their relations with the broader Middle East is at odds with Russia’s wider interests.
The latest anti-government protest in Moscow on February 4 is further evidence that Putin's legitimacy is slowly eroding.
Recent protests have undermined the legitimacy of Russian authorities and significantly weakened Putin's hold on power. Even if the protests were to unexpectedly stop, the process of chipping away at Putin's regime has been set in motion.
Moscow’s position on Syria is primarily shaped by the recent experience of Libya, strong doubts concerning the Syrian opposition, and suspicions about U.S. motives.
Russia's position on Syria is often described as a result of Damascus being Moscow's political ally, a major arms client, and a fellow authoritarian regime, but the reality is more complex.
The core issue in the NATO-Russia relationship is the mutual deficit of trust. The Euro-Atlantic area needs a “security community,” where no member expects any other state to use force or threaten to use force against it.