Carnegie Moscow Center
Although President-elect Obama and President Medvedev have not gotten off to a warm start, that may not set the tone of the relationship. In the past, leaders in both capitals that started with high expectations about the other country were subsequently disappointed.
Those who argue that the West should be bolder in its response to a newly assertive Russia are using the past to deal with a very different present and a highly uncertain future. The West must first determine what Russia wants and where it is heading and should then structure a security relationship in Europe that would both include Russia and reassure its wary neighbors.
The recent collapse of the ruling coalition in Ukraine reveals a vast schism in the country’s views towards Russia. However, leaders in America, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine need to agree on ways of keeping Ukraine united and at peace because should a clash between Russia and Ukraine occur , it could prove to be more disastrous than the current conflict in Georgia.
Russia’s aspirations for the next U.S. administration, although taken with a grain of salt, should not be treated as irrelevant. Ideally, from a Russian perspective, the next administration will act on the basis of U.S. interests and avoid unilateralism. Nevertheless, Russia does not seek to supplant the current U.S. system with a different one.
The Russia-Georgia conflict is a watershed for a new era in geopolitics. As America scrambles to react to the crisis, Russia will continue to challenge Western influence in the former Soviet space. In turn, both will turn to Europe, and Europe’s ability to defend its own interests will be the most severe test yet for the Union. All the while, China, Iran and others watch with keen interest.
Although in the short term the basis for a ceasefire has formed between Russia and Georgia, the conflict has entirely transformed the region. Russian peacekeepers can now no longer operate alone in the separatist regions. In addition, South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot revert back to Georgia. Finally, the already deteriorating Russia-U.S. relationship will now face a new set of challenges.
A united Europe could play the pivotal peacemaker in the Russia-Georgia conflict, strengthening cooperation in the continent’s east. However, both unity and independent action on Europe’s part are unlikely. Therefore, the Russia policy of the next U.S. president will be essential for ensuring stability in the region.
Russia military campaign has capitalized on Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili's missteps, and will seek regime change in Tbilisi even if the new leadership is still anti-Russian. Moscow's objective in the Caucasus is to restore its position as the predominant power in the face of Western encroachment.
Russia’s response to Georgia’s large-scale military operation in South Ossetia transformed the conflict from a regional dispute over an obscure ethnic group into an emerging international crisis between Russia and the West. While Georgia may have succeeded in causing Russia to move in with heavy forces, the United States and Europe need to pause and think before following Saakashvili's script.
Dmitri Trenin explains that like Putin, Dimtry Medvedev seeks to pit U.S. economic and military power against the authority of existing international law. Moscow’s ultimate objective is to “replace U.S. hegemony with an oligarchy of the new global powers.”