Carnegie Moscow Center
The ongoing conflicts in the Caucasus stem more from the way the region was managed under the Soviet system than from any ethnic incompatibility or ancient hatreds among its inhabitants.
With its simmering conflicts and economic problems, the South Caucasus poses perhaps the biggest challenge to the European community in its neighborhood.
Russia’s North Caucasus is in the grip of a low-intensity civil war and Moscow’s current policy of building up Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has not succeeded in preventing the spread of violence.
The inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to find any common ground in their conflict over Nagorno Karabakh undermines the chance of peace in the region and, without more constructive international engagement, increases the risk of outright war.
The main political issue facing Turkey in the Black Sea region is how to guarantee political and military security in the area as Ankara positions itself as a key regional actor and independent center of power.
A revival of the Turkish-Armenian Protocols would benefit the entire region, but it will require increased effort to convince both the Turkish public and Azerbaijan to support the normalization process.
The attack by militants on the Chechen parliament is a new blow to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. It is becoming increasingly clear that Kadyrov’s heavy-handed methods for suppressing opponents are no guarantee of long-term security.
Diaspora Armenian politics are playing a significant role in holding up U.S. diplomatic nominations to the countries of the South Caucasus, which risks undermining U.S. engagement and influence throughout the region.
The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia stalled only months after its auspicious beginning in October 2009, when the foreign ministers of the two countries signed two historic protocols establishing diplomatic relations between the bitterly divided neighbors.
While there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian–Turkish Protocols will be ratified soon, both parties should take steps to rebuild confidence and affirm their faith in the process.