Carnegie Moscow Center
Abkhazia has become increasingly dependent on Russia for security, military, and economic investments ever since Moscow recognized Abkhazia’s independence in August 2008.
The rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey is in crisis. The protocols on normalization and recognition have not been ratified and a process of great historic and strategic importance is in danger of collapse.
The conflicts in the Caucasus are often directly linked to changes in territorial borders. Creating an atlas of the Caucasus is a key to understanding the nature of the conflicts in the region.
Rather than addressing the reasons why their initiatives against terrorism have not been effective, the Russian authorities have focused on trying to calm the public with harsh but empty rhetoric.
Terrorist threats in Russia require a long-term, consistent strategy. But Russia's system of heavy-handed and unaccountable governance precludes strategic thinking.
The Kremlin’s control over the media may allow Russia’s elites to avoid the immediate consequences of the recent metro bombings, but if the security problem is not resolved, the current authorities will face growing calls for accountability.
The March bombings in Moscow have shown that efforts by the Kremlin to quiet the North Caucasus have only made rebel leaders more desperate and more willing to resort to terrorism to achieve their goals.
The recent attacks demonstrate the Kremlin’s lack of success in defeating the North Caucasus insurgency believed to be behind the March metro bombings, as well as the impossibility of isolating the violence in the North Caucasus without turning Russia into a police state.
Both the United States and Russia face the threat of global terrorism, and they should work together and share intelligence in order to respond to terrorist threats.
In the wake of the recent Moscow suicide bombings, the Russian people may begin to draw a connection between corruption among police and security forces and the inability of those security forces to protect Russian citizens from terrorist attacks.