Carnegie Moscow Center
The militant attack on Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s home village has shown the vulnerability of the Kadyrov regime, which is commonly considered the most successful in the North Caucasus and quite capable of guaranteeing stability.
If Russia wants to be a principal security provider and peace guarantor in the CIS space, it will need to refocus its strategy away from resisting NATO's drive and U.S. deployments and toward conflict prevention and conflict resolution.
The Russian government should use soft power to win back sympathy from the Georgian population in preparation for the end of Georgian President Saakashvili’s term in office in 2013.
Two years since fighting broke out between Georgia and Russia, the situation in the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains deadlocked and the current western policy of strong rhetorical support for the Georgian position substitutes easy words for hard diplomatic work.
The international community cannot afford to let the unresolved dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh remain a low priority; a renewal of violence would impact not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The Hague ruling on Kosovo's independence indirectly strengthens the position of other self-proclaimed states—from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to Nagorno-Karabakh and North Cyprus. However, legal rulings do not negate the need to find a political solution.
The attack at the Baksan hydropower station may be a sign that the militants in the Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria are switching to guerilla warfare and that the authorities must rethink their strategy for how to deal with the North Caucasus.
The North Caucasus remains one of the toughest challenges facing Russia today and the problems that have accumulated there over the past decades require an equally long and serious strategic approach to resolve.
Through business connections, Georgia and Abkhazia can discover opportunities for mutually beneficial engagement that could improve socio-economic conditions in Abkhazia, build confidence on both sides, and eventually help resolve the conflict there.
The bloodshed on the ceasefire line should focus minds and be a reminder that a new conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh would be catastrophic for everyone, not just Armenians and Azeris.