Carnegie Moscow Center
While Nagorno-Karabakh engages in the process of building a de facto state, hardening attitudes in Karabakh and Azerbaijan could lead to a war which would affect the entire South Caucasus, including Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
Following the 2008 war, the United States has struggled to redefine its relationship with Georgia. Questions remain concerning the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as the remaining democratic weaknesses in the Georgian government.
The position of EU special representative for the south Caucasus plays an important role in the potential transformation and development of the volatile region.
Although Azerbaijan and Turkey have reached an agreement to supply natural gas to Turkey, the Nabucco pipeline project still faces many challenges.
The circumstances surrounding the exodus of the Russian population of Chechnya and the deterioration of bilateral relations must be better understood if Moscow wishes to cultivate positive relations between Chechens and Russians and to avoid similar developments in other parts of Russia.
The recent terrorist attack in Stavropol suggests that if Russia is still facing an increasing number of terrorist attacks, then perhaps it is time for the authorities to rethink their policies for the pacification of the Caucasus.
Armenia suspended the process of normalization with Turkey in April, dealing a blow to an agreement designed to open the closed Armenia–Turkey border after almost a century of hostility between the nations.
Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are deadlocked, with serious consequences not only for the nations involved in the conflict, but also for the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process.
Tensions between Georgia and Russia continue to simmer, in the aftermath of the five-day war of August 2008. Without disinterested help from the West, Georgian president Saakashvili’s rhetorical invocation of a Russian threat could all too easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Six months after the signing of protocols intended to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey and open the closed border between the two countries, the protocols are in danger of collapse.