Carnegie Moscow Center
The North Caucasus looks and feels more and more like Russia’s neighbor than a constituent part of the state. As the people in the region have become disappointed in local leaders and the Kremlin, many of them turn to Islam as their last hope to achieve structure and peace.
Post-Soviet Russia has witnessed an expansion of religious freedom and a change in the relationship between religious entities and the state. Religious movements that had all but disappeared under the Soviet regime have been experiencing a revival.
Turkey and Armenia signed historic protocols on October 10 to restore diplomatic ties and open shared borders. Although the deal must still be ratified by their respective parliaments, it marks the first step in resolving tensions stemming from the killing of Armenians under Ottoman rule in 1915.
Russia retains interests throughout the post-Soviet regions, but Moscow’s considerable influence is no longer dominant.
Despite the official end of Russia’s counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya, armed clashes and terrorist attacks continue to plague North Caucasus. Open conflict is on the verge of becoming inevitable.
The upsurge of violence in Russia's North Caucasus region is the result of the incompetence of local authorities and the Kremlin’s failure or reluctance to seriously address the issues of the region.
As violence in the North Caucasus surges, Kremlin policies and its loyal, but brutal, local leaders have played a critical role in causing the situation.
A suicide bomb attack that killed 19 people and wounded at least 58 in Ingushetia was likely intended as retaliation for President Yevkurov’s determination to intensify his fight against Islamic extremists.
Questions remain whether Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov ordered the recent murders of human rights activists in Chechnya, or whether the crimes were an attempt by his opponents to discredit his leadership.
The recent spike in violence in the North Caucasus undermines the Kremlin's claim that its anti-terrorism policies in the region are succeeding.