Carnegie Moscow Center
Ending the threat of violence from the rebel groups in the North Caucasus requires long-term social, economic, and political actions, not a security clampdown which will only fuel further hatred and incite more people to join the rebel cause.
In spite of terrorist acts like the Moscow metro bombings, the Russian people continue to show strong support for their leaders, who are credited with having prevented a total economic collapse.
In spite of the recent suicide bombings in the Moscow metro, the government is unlikely to institute any major changes that will significantly enhance Russia’s security, and the next few years may actually see an intensification of terrorist activity in Russia.
The tense relations between the Muslim world and the rest of the world remain one of the biggest problems in global politics today. Moving forward, both sides must work together to recognize the inevitability of conflict and seek avenues for peaceful mitigation.
Magomedov, the new president of Dagestan, is a compromise figure selected to help calm the region. There is every chance that he could be a success for the Kremlin, with the apparent support of Dagestan’s parliament.
Armenia and Turkey have a chance to move forward from their troubled past by ratifying the historic protocols signed in October 2009. While the governments in both Yerevan and Ankara face strong opposition to the protocols, a failure to ratify the agreement could have disastrous consequences for the entire region.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia presidential summit in Sochi is unlikely to change the situation with Karabakh, but may reignite the stagnated negotiation process. Russian involvement is key to its presence in the Caucasus.
By combining the posts of presidential envoy and deputy prime minister for the newly created North Caucasus Federal District, the Kremlin is taking strong political measures to end the violence in the North Caucasus.
The Republic of Dagestan is becoming increasingly unstable, partially caused by a Russian policy of neglect, appointing only leaders loyal to Moscow. Severe economic problems and radical Islam also contribute to the violence.
The appointment of Khloponin as envoy for the new North Caucasus Federal District is an attempt by Moscow to tackle growing instability in the region. But while Khloponin has strong business credentials, he lacks experience in federal governance.