Carnegie Moscow Center
The recent parliamentary elections in Russia offer evidence of the corruption afflicting the country’s political system, as officials manipulated the system to guarantee that the ruling United Russia party would remain in power.
While Putin may have a guaranteed victory in the upcoming presidential election, it is increasingly clear that Russia’s once-passive electorate is willing to show its discontent, making it potentially more difficult to promote necessary economic reforms.
The recent parliamentary elections saw the ruling United Russia party fare worse than expected, as Russian citizens expressed their frustration with perceived lawlessness and corruption in the country’s political system.
Greater understanding and cooperation with China is crucial to Russia’s future as a Euro-Pacific nation-state.
The situation in Syria is unlikely to improve in the near future. It is increasingly likely that the violent domestic unrest can only be resolved through a regime change.
Bolstered by the high price of oil, Moscow is likely to take the opportunity to contribute to Europe’s rescue fund in return for more influence on the International Monetary Fund.
The balance in Sino-Russian economic relations has shifted heavily in favor of the Chinese, and Moscow’s long-term strategy toward China will likely seek to make their relationship more equal.
If Putin is re-elected president, he is likely to seek to maintain continuity and stability in a time of economic uncertainty and his return will not significantly alter Russian domestic politics or the U.S.-Russia reset.
If Russian Prime Minister Putin is elected Russia’s next president, it will likely not have a significant impact on the success of the reset in U.S.-Russian bilateral relations.
Given that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has probably been involved in the U.S.-Russian reset in bilateral relations, a high degree of continuity in Russian policy toward the United States is likely when he becomes president.